BOGOTÁ, Colombia — A growing U.S. military presence in the southern Caribbean off Venezuela is fueling speculation that Washington could launch an armed strike, while also stoking fears of a wider South American crisis.
The Trump administration has concentrated warships and thousands of troops in the region, and last Monday it designated the Venezuelan government led by President Nicolás Maduro as a foreign terrorist organization. President Trump has said he is open to talks with Maduro but has also suggested the Venezuelan leader may not remain in power much longer.
Many Venezuelans — including opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado — back U.S. intervention as a way to remove Maduro, whose authoritarian rule and mismanagement have driven millions to flee the country. Yet military action by the United States would be controversial domestically and carries major risks.
“This cozy idea that somehow Maduro falls and the next day María Corina Machado walks into the presidential palace and everybody lives happily ever after is fantastical,” said Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group, based in Caracas. He warned that a smooth transition to a stable, democratic government is unlikely.
Trump has pushed to oust Maduro since his first term, even recognizing opposition lawmaker Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president in 2019. With Maduro still in power, Trump’s second term has seen renewed consideration of military options.
The most extreme option would be a full-scale invasion similar to the 1989 U.S. operation in Panama, which deployed some 27,000 troops to overthrow Manuel Noriega. But experts say the current U.S. force in the Caribbean — including roughly 15,000 troops aboard a large naval flotilla — would be insufficient to secure a country the size of Venezuela, a nation larger than Texas that includes mountains and Amazon rainforest.
A larger invasion might quickly rout Venezuela’s regular army; many conscripts are poorly paid and could defect. Yet any occupation would likely encounter fierce resistance from irregular forces. Jeremy McDermott, co-director of Insight Crime, says an invasion would be “extremely complex,” with armed pushback expected in Caracas and border regions.
Potential resistance forces include pro-Maduro militias known as colectivos, Colombian guerrillas who operate inside Venezuela and support the regime, and civilians whom the government has armed and trained. State media have framed such training as a people’s defense of the country.
Despite widespread hostility toward Maduro among many Venezuelans — and polling, not yet public, that an analyst said shows popular support for U.S. military action — there is significant caution. Zair Mundaray, a former Venezuelan prosecutor in exile, said, “There is no other way,” reflecting the desperation of some opposition figures. Machado has issued a “freedom manifesto” calling for restored rights, free markets and clean elections, while anti-government influencers circulate AI-generated fantasies of Maduro captured by U.S. forces.
But U.S. public opinion appears unconvinced: a CBS News/YouGov poll found 70% of Americans oppose military action in Venezuela, and only 13% consider the country a major threat to the United States. That skepticism makes a risky unilateral strike or capture operation politically fraught. Opposition lawmaker Henrique Capriles questions whether Americans care enough about Maduro to sustain such an operation.
Trump may be hoping the military pressure will trigger a palace coup by factions within Venezuela’s security forces. Yet Maduro has insulated himself with loyalists and Cuban bodyguards, and the pressure campaign has arguably consolidated regime cohesion and intensified persecution of opponents, says Caracas radio host Vladimir Villegas.
Removing Maduro would not guarantee a stable democratic outcome. Capriles notes that Maduro’s control extends across government branches and local institutions, and United Socialist Party officials hold many municipal and state posts. The aftermath of a regime change would likely prompt urgent demands for reconstruction aid — a form of nation-building that Trump has resisted. “What about the day after?” Capriles asked, questioning whether the U.S. would commit the tens of billions needed to stabilize Venezuela.
The U.S. operation has been framed officially as an anti-narcotics mission — “Operation Southern Spear” — targeting drug trafficking in the Caribbean, including destruction of suspected drug boats. Venezuelan analyst Benigno Alarcón said such actions alone would be inadequate to justify the scale of the military buildup.
McDermott called the standoff “a giant game of chicken.” He argued that Maduro can endure a prolonged U.S. naval presence off his coast, and as long as he holds firm, Washington cannot maintain a significant portion of its fleet indefinitely. Time, McDermott said, favors Maduro as long as he does not blink.