The Trump administration is scaling back plans for this year’s field test of the 2030 census, raising concerns about the Census Bureau’s ability to produce a reliable population tally for redistributing political representation and federal funding in the next decade.
The 2026 test was designed to help the bureau improve accuracy for the once-a-decade head count. A mix of communities in six states, plus a national sample of households, had been expected to take part. The agency now plans to reduce test sites to two — Huntsville, Ala., and Spartanburg, S.C. — and add plans to try replacing temporary census workers with U.S. Postal Service staff, according to a Federal Register notice made available for public inspection Monday before its official publication.
The bureau is also cutting a plan to provide Spanish- and Chinese-language versions of the census test’s online form; the form will be available only in English. Households can start using the form in the spring, the bureau’s website says, and if they don’t respond they may get a visit from a census or postal worker.
Spokespeople for the bureau and its parent agency, the Commerce Department, did not immediately respond to NPR’s questions about what prompted the changes. In a statement announcing the “launch of the 2026 Census Test,” the bureau said it “remains committed to conducting the most accurate count in history for the 2030 Census and looks forward to the continued partnership with local communities.”
Census test plans for rural communities and Indigenous tribal lands are cut
Among the locations no longer part of the census test are rural communities in western Texas and Indigenous tribal lands in Arizona and North Carolina, including the Fort Apache Reservation (White Mountain Apache Tribe), San Carlos Reservation (San Carlos Apache Tribe) and the Qualla Boundary (Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians).
Terri Ann Lowenthal, a census consultant and former congressional subcommittee staff director, called the development “disheartening.” “The descoped 2026 test plan is confusing and unclear to the public — a product, regrettably, of the administration pulling a black-out shade over all planning for 2030,” she said. “Equally troubling, we already know from the last census that not fully evaluating promising new methods and improved operations, for example in rural areas and on American Indian reservations, can lead to a less accurate count in many communities.”
The cutbacks come after the bureau refused to update oversight lawmakers and after the administration disbanded the bureau’s outside advisory committees, which had received periodic briefings on 2030 planning during public meetings. Over the past year the bureau has also had multiple departures of experienced staff amid the administration’s reductions in the federal workforce.
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the top Democrat overseeing the bureau on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, said he was “alarmed” by the announcement. “When the Census Bureau doesn’t accurately count people, the communities most in need lose out on critical resources,” Peters said. He urged the bureau to reverse the decision and conduct the 2026 test with all six communities as planned.
Dante Moreno, a lobbyist for local governments at the National League of Cities, said leaders of some canceled test sites were informed of the changes on Monday after months without updates. He said the test’s new focus on online responses raises concerns: “Rural areas in general are just less likely to have cell service or internet service. So how do you fill out those questionnaires? Or if your home is a mile away from another home, how do you make sure that people know that you exist there, that they know to come to you so you get counted?”
Indigenous leaders and advocates expressed similar worries about language assistance and the federal trust responsibility to tribes. Saundra Mitrovich, a census consultant with the Native American Rights Fund and co-leader of the Natives Count Coalition, noted that many Native populations face language assistance needs. “And when we can’t rightly respond to that or participate in pulling together an operations plan that will address that adequately, then it becomes a challenge. Are you listening to our communities? Are you upholding that federal trust responsibility for tribes?” Mitrovich said.
Exactly how postal workers will help is unclear
Preparations for the test have already suffered delays in raising public awareness and finalizing a staffing plan, partly because of uncertain congressional funding. The bureau had also been waiting for months for a White House agency to approve a plan to contact administrators of college dorms, nursing homes and other group-living quarters; the revised test plan makes no mention of group quarters.
Bringing on Postal Service workers to help conduct the test raises questions among advocates and USPS. A 2011 Government Accountability Office report found that replacing temporary census workers with higher-paid mail carriers is not cost-effective. Still, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has publicly supported the idea, claiming it could save the government money.
USPS spokesperson Albert Ruiz referred NPR’s questions, including whether postal workers would be expected to work on the census in addition to regular duties, to the Commerce Department. “The United States Postal Service looks forward to participating in the 2026 Operational Test in Support of the 2030 Census,” Ruiz said.
Edited by Benjamin Swasey