A major global analysis released in Nature Medicine on 3 February 2026 shows how much of the world’s cancer burden could be averted by tackling known, modifiable causes. The study, presented by Isabelle Soerjomataram of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and colleague Andre Ilbawi, covers 36 cancer types across 185 countries and provides the most comprehensive estimate to date of cancers linked to changeable risk factors.
The authors estimate that 7.1 million new cancer cases in 2022—about 37.8% of the 18.7 million total—were attributable to 30 modifiable risk factors. Those risks include tobacco and alcohol use, infections (for the first time included in this kind of global analysis), high body mass index (BMI), insufficient physical activity, air pollution, occupational exposures such as asbestos, smokeless tobacco and areca nut, certain breastfeeding practices, and ultraviolet radiation.
Infections, notably human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B, emerged as major contributors to cancers in women. HPV-related cancers accounted for the largest share of preventable female cancers worldwide despite the availability of effective vaccines. The report highlights vaccine hesitancy and unequal access as major barriers: some countries such as Australia have driven cervical cancer rates down to about 5 cases per 100,000, while Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa still carry high burdens. In 2022 the Global Cancer Observatory recorded more than 63,000 cervical cancer cases in Latin America and over 30,000 deaths. Researchers and regional experts point to limited vaccine uptake, gaps in early detection and treatment, and cultural concerns that can depress coverage—for example, parts of Brazil report around 67% HPV vaccine coverage versus an estimated desirable level near 80%.
The analysis also reveals important sex differences in the drivers of preventable cancers. Infections accounted for some 2.7 million preventable cancer cases among women (roughly 29.7% of cases in women), whereas behavioral risks—principally tobacco use—were the leading modifiable cause in men, responsible for about 4.3 million cases (about 45.4% of cases in men). Lung cancer illustrates both shared and divergent drivers: tobacco, air pollution and workplace exposures contributed to lung cancer in both sexes, but the case counts were markedly higher in men (about 1,326,453 cases) than in women (about 477,869 cases) in 2022.
The researchers warn that without stronger prevention efforts the global cancer burden will keep rising: projections from the Global Cancer Observatory anticipate more than a 50% increase in cancer cases by 2045. They emphasize that many of these additional cases could be avoided through targeted interventions that address the mix of risks in each region. Prevention strategies need to be multifaceted and tailored—recognizing sex-specific effects, and the social, economic and cultural determinants that influence exposure and access to preventive tools such as vaccines, tobacco control, air quality measures and occupational protections.
The report also notes that 62.2% of cancer cases were not attributable to the assessed modifiable risk factors, reflecting the roles of aging populations, rarer cancers with unclear causes, and gaps in diagnostics and treatment standards in some settings. Experts say the study provides a valuable, data-driven roadmap for global prevention policy: while structural and social determinants are critical, individual-level actions and improved public health programs remain essential to reduce preventable cancer deaths worldwide.