Portugal is holding a second-round presidential vote Sunday to choose a successor to conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa for the largely ceremonial head-of-state role. Polling stations on the mainland open at 8 a.m. local time for about 11 million eligible voters in a historic runoff — the first in 40 years and only the second presidential runoff since democracy was restored in 1974.
The clear favorite is 63-year-old Antonio Jose Seguro of the center-left Socialist Party. Opinion polls suggest Seguro could capture as much as two-thirds of the vote. His main rival is 43-year-old Andre Ventura of the right-wing populist Chega, forecast to receive roughly a third of ballots. In the first round three weeks ago, Seguro led with 31% but failed to secure an outright majority.
Seguro has cast himself as a moderate prepared to work with Portugal’s center-right minority government. The veteran politician returned from a teaching hiatus specifically to run and has framed the election as a choice between defending democratic norms and resisting radicalism.
Ventura, a former TV sports commentator and lawyer, leads Chega, a party that has grown rapidly since its founding seven years ago on anti-establishment and anti-immigrant themes. His campaign has pushed tougher measures on corruption and crime, proposing harsher sentences including life terms and chemical castration for sex offenders. Ventura has used provocative messaging — from billboards reading “This isn’t Bangladesh” to calls to restrict welfare to Portuguese nationals — and his party became the second-largest in parliament after the May 18 general election.
Stabilizing politics will be a key challenge for the next president. Portugal has held three general elections in three years after successive administrations collapsed amid corruption scandals, conflicts of interest and rising populism, leaving fragile minority governments in their wake. The center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition holds 91 seats in the 230-seat parliament and still lacks an absolute majority, complicating governance.
Turnout is expected to fall to about 52%, a decline analysts attribute in part to severe storms that recently battered parts of Portugal and neighboring Spain. Roughly 19 municipalities have postponed voting by a week because of flooding or blocked roads; election authorities rejected Ventura’s request for a nationwide delay. Polling stations on the mainland and Madeira will close at 7 p.m.; the Azores will remain open for an extra hour.
The winner is expected to take office on March 9, succeeding Rebelo de Sousa, who has led the country since 2016. While the presidency is largely ceremonial, the office retains significant powers including the ability to veto legislation, dissolve parliament and call early elections.