Voters are heading to polling stations across Thailand to elect a new parliament in a tightly contested vote dominated by three blocs: the reformist People’s Party (PP), the conservative Bhumjaithai Party of incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, and Pheu Thai, the party long linked to the Shinawatra political dynasty.
Surveys suggest the People’s Party will take the largest share of votes for the 500-seat lower house. Its prime ministerial candidate is 38-year-old entrepreneur Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. The PP is the successor to the Move Forward party, which won a landslide in 2023 but had its leader blocked from becoming prime minister and was later dissolved after the Constitutional Court ruled parts of its reform agenda amounted to an attempt to overthrow the monarchy. For this election, the PP has moderated some of its earlier rhetoric to broaden appeal, particularly among young and urban voters.
Analysts predict a close result unlikely to produce a clear majority, making coalition talks almost certain. The political environment is strained: Thailand’s economy and crucial tourism industry are under pressure, and clashes along the border with Cambodia have raised security concerns. The country’s recent political churn — three prime ministers in under three years since the 2023 election — sits against a longer history of instability, with 13 successful military coups since 1932.
Bhumjaithai remains a major force under Anutin’s leadership, while Pheu Thai, traditionally dominant in Thai politics, has seen its influence wane following the removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office last year. The Shinawatra family’s imprint on Thai politics endures: Paetongtarn’s father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, remains a central figure despite serving a one-year jail sentence for corruption and abuse of power.
Alongside the parliamentary vote, Thais will decide a constitutional question: whether to authorize a process to replace the current 2017 military-backed charter. The referendum asks voters if they “approve that there should be a new constitution,” offering “Yes,” “No,” or “No opinion.” A majority “Yes” would not immediately produce a new constitution; it would give parliament a public mandate to start a multi-stage drafting process that itself would require two further referendums before any new charter could be adopted.
With deep political divisions, a volatile security backdrop and economic headwinds, the election and referendum together could reshape Thailand’s governance path — but experts warn that any change will likely emerge only after protracted negotiations and further public votes.
Edited by: Sean Sinico