Major members of Brazil’s soy industry announced they will withdraw from a voluntary moratorium that for years helped limit soy-driven clearing in the Amazon, raising alarm among environmentalists and market observers. The industry association ABIOVE, whose membership includes large traders such as Cofco International, Bunge, Amaggi and JBS, said it would no longer commit to avoiding soy sourced from recently deforested land.
Environmental organizations in Brazil say the move effectively dismantles transparent safeguards established to prevent forest loss for short-term commercial gain, and warn it could encourage renewed logging across the Amazon. A preliminary analysis from the Brazilian Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) projects that ending the moratorium could increase Amazon deforestation by as much as 30% by 2045.
ABIOVE has framed the decision as consistent with following Brazil’s Forest Code and as a step to secure long-term exports of soy and soy products. But critics note the moratorium — negotiated under pressure from environmental groups and international buyers, introduced in 2006 and enforced from about 2009 — had been a key private-sector commitment: major traders agreed not to buy soy grown on land cleared in the Amazon.
IPAM reports that within monitored areas the moratorium coincided with roughly a 70% reduction in deforestation. Still, soy expansion continued overall: since 2008 the soy-growing area in the Brazilian Amazon increased by about 7.28 million hectares. The World Wide Fund for Nature estimates roughly 80% of global soy ends up as animal feed, linking demand patterns to land-use change.
Market analysts say removing the moratorium lowers barriers to bringing new land into production. Eduardo Vanin of Marex expects soy area in Mato Grosso, a key producing state, could expand by around 150,000 hectares, noting that the policy change makes clearing easier even if it does not immediately produce a large spike in cutting.
Brazil is the world’s largest soy producer, accounting for about 40% of global output, with the United States in second place. China, the biggest buyer, now sources roughly 70% of its soy from Brazil versus about 21% from the US — a shift that began after drought-reduced US harvests in 2012 and accelerated during the 2018 US–China trade dispute and again in 2025. Analysts point to Brazil’s larger available cropland, lower per-hectare costs, favourable growing conditions and expanding technical capacity as drivers of its market rise. Observers warn that easing private-sector deforestation controls could deepen Brazil’s export dependence on China.
Europe remains an important market but has sent mixed signals: the EU postponed a regulation aimed at banning products linked to deforestation and diluted parts of its corporate sustainability due diligence rule, easing some policy pressure on exporters. Still, European procurement standards continue to demand traceability in many supply chains. In response to ABIOVE’s announcement, 14 major European buyers — including supermarket chains Lidl and Aldi — said they would suspend purchases unless soy supply chains remain fully traceable and demonstrably deforestation-free.
Supporters of the moratorium argue it helped slow soy-related clearing in monitored regions and protected biodiversity and the Amazon’s carbon-storing capacity. Opponents of the withdrawal caution that abandoning these voluntary restrictions risks reversing conservation gains at a moment when forest protection is critical for climate regulation and biodiversity conservation.