Lebanon finds itself especially vulnerable as the fallout from US‑backed Israeli strikes on Iran unfolds. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has repeatedly insisted Lebanon will not be pulled into regional conflicts, urging Hezbollah not to “drag Lebanon” into “another adventure.” Yet Hezbollah leaders have issued stark warnings: in January deputy leader Naim Qassem said any US attack on Iran would be treated as an attack on Hezbollah, and a Hezbollah official told AFP this week that an assault on Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be considered a “red line.”
Israel, the United States’ main regional ally, has warned Beirut it would respond forcefully — including strikes on civilian infrastructure — if Hezbollah enters a US‑Iran confrontation; two Lebanese officials confirmed that threat this week. Burcu Ozcelik, a RUSI senior fellow on Middle East security, says Iran would likely expect Hezbollah to contribute, most plausibly by applying pressure on Israel. But she cautions Hezbollah faces complex domestic constraints: pressure to integrate from President Michel Aoun and the group’s political and social role in Lebanon raise the political and human costs of an open‑ended war.
Hezbollah’s recent record adds to the uncertainty. The group’s military wing, designated a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and others, began firing at Israel in support of Hamas after the October 7, 2023 attacks. A ceasefire in November 2024 ended nearly a year of tit‑for‑tat exchanges and two months of full‑scale fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. That campaign killed many in Hezbollah’s leadership, destroyed large portions of its infrastructure and arsenal, and left swathes of southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut heavily damaged. About 4,000 people died, and the World Bank estimates reconstruction needs at roughly $11 billion.
The ceasefire included disarmament provisions, but Hezbollah has relinquished weapons only in the area south of the Litani River and refuses full disarmament. The group argues it must retain arms to defend Lebanon against continued Israeli strikes and what it calls Israeli occupation of several border points. Israel says it will keep targeting Hezbollah so long as the group remains a threat. As a key member of the Iran‑led “Axis of Resistance,” alongside Hamas, the Houthis and various Iraqi militias, Hezbollah continues to frame the United States and Israel as adversaries.
Salam told Naharnet the Lebanese state will press on with disarmament beyond Phase 1 (the strip between the border and the Litani), calling disarmament an “irreversible sovereign choice.” He expressed greater caution about Phase 2, north of the Litani, saying its implementation will depend on factors including the outcome of an international conference to support the Lebanese Armed Forces in Paris on March 5, 2026, which the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and France are scheduled to attend.
Analysts warn the window for disarmament is narrowing. A recent Institute for the Study of War report said delays will make it harder to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting its forces. Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut argues Hezbollah remains weaker and more fragmented than before the 2023–24 fighting, which complicates decision‑making inside the movement. He notes a split between the military wing, which opposes disarmament, and the political wing, which holds parliamentary seats and runs social services and may be more open to negotiation. Even so, pro‑Hezbollah constituencies within the Shiite community retain significant political influence.
RUSI’s Ozcelik suggests a likely Hezbollah response to an escalated US‑Iran confrontation would be symbolic: limited, calibrated attacks on Israeli targets designed to show solidarity with Tehran while avoiding steps that would provoke overwhelming Israeli retaliation. She warns, however, that changing circumstances or direct Israeli moves could force a different, more dangerous response.
For ordinary Lebanese, the prospect of renewed regional war compounds deep domestic hardship. Since 2019 the country has suffered economic collapse, the devastating Beirut port explosion in 2020 and the 2023–24 conflict with Israel. Many residents doubt international reconstruction will proceed without a credible path to Hezbollah’s disarmament.
“I feel hopeless,” said Nadim El Riz, 35, a videographer near Saida. “I expect a big and deadly war between Iran and its proxies on one side and the US and Israel on the other.” Raymond Khoury, a 38‑year‑old fitness trainer in Beirut, said he fears Lebanon will be dragged into conflict because of Hezbollah’s ties to Iran. Fatima Naim, 27 and living in Beirut, said she copes by living day‑to‑day and avoiding thoughts of escalation, feeling powerless to change what might happen.
Edited by: Jess Smee
This article was updated on February 26, 2026, to reflect the latest Hezbollah statement, and again on February 28 to reflect the US‑backed Israeli strikes on Iran.