At the outset of the current war with Iran, then-US President Donald Trump stated clear goals: Tehran should no longer pose a nuclear or conventional military threat, and the weakened clerical regime should be removed from power. Since the start of the strikes, Trump and other senior US officials have offered varying justifications. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth even said the conflict was “not a so‑called regime change war.” Given US history, however, it would not be surprising if regime change was a motivating factor.
The United States has long experience with efforts to alter governments abroad. One 2019 study counted 72 US attempts during the Cold War (1947–1989) to change the balance of power in its favor; 64 were covert intelligence operations and the overall success rate was roughly 40%. A prominent early example was the 1953 CIA‑ and MI6‑backed overthrow of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. The restoration and empowerment of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi contributed to perceptions of the ruler as a US client and helped fuel the Islamic Revolution of 1979, whose theocratic regime is central to today’s tensions.
Even apparent short‑term successes have produced long‑term problems. Selected cases illustrate the mixed legacy of overt and covert US regime change efforts.
Libya (2011)
During the Arab Spring, opposition to long‑time Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi grew. The US, France and the UK supported the National Transitional Council and carried out airstrikes under NATO’s Operation Unified Protector. In October 2011 a US drone and a French fighter attacked Gaddafi’s convoy; he was later killed by National Transitional Council fighters. Nearly 15 years on, Libya remains fragmented and unstable.
Iraq (2003)
After Saddam Hussein fell, President George W. Bush declared an end to major combat operations in May 2003 with a “Mission Accomplished” banner aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln and promised a transition to democracy. Instead, occupation and state institution weakness, sectarian divisions, and Iranian influence helped create a power vacuum exploited by extremist groups, most notably the so‑called Islamic State (ISIS). US planners had often assumed liberal democratic values would easily take root after removing dictators, an expectation that proved mistaken.
Afghanistan (2001)
Four weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the US launched Operation Enduring Freedom and quickly ousted the Taliban government. A US‑backed administration followed, but the Taliban gradually retook territory after international forces reduced troop levels from 2014 onward. A conditional withdrawal deal reached under Donald Trump and the final US pullout in 2021 under Joe Biden preceded a swift Taliban return to power and a reversion toward pre‑invasion governance.
Panama (1989)
Manuel Noriega had been a CIA asset but became a liability as a hub for drug trafficking and a perceived threat to US interests around the Panama Canal. After Noriega refused to accept the 1989 election results won by Guillermo Endara, President George H. W. Bush ordered Operation Just Cause in December 1989. Endara was sworn in and Noriega surrendered; he later served prison terms abroad. The operation cost was later reported at $331 million.
Grenada (1983)
When Grenada’s revolutionary government shifted toward the Soviet bloc and internal turmoil resulted in the deposition and assassination of Prime Minister Maurice Bishop, President Ronald Reagan ordered an invasion supported by several Caribbean states. The UK opposed the action as the island lay within its traditional sphere; after US forces withdrew, a British governor oversaw a transition and elections in 1984.
Dominican Republic (1965)
Amid coups and civil unrest in 1965, the Organization of American States endorsed US intervention. President Lyndon B. Johnson sent troops—officially to protect American citizens but also to prevent a perceived repeat of Cuba’s socialist turn—ensuring a US‑favored leader took power. As many as 44,400 US troops were involved.
Venezuela (2026)
One of the most recent and still unresolved episodes occurred in early January 2026, when the US arranged for Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to be abducted and brought to New York to face charges of “drug terrorism.” Maduro’s former deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, rose to the top of the state; despite being part of the prior regime, the US signaled willingness to cooperate with her in return for access to Venezuela’s large oil reserves. Opposition figure María Corina Machado, a 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner and Trump supporter, announced plans to return and lead a transition to democracy. Two months after the targeted intervention, Venezuela’s future remained uncertain.
These cases show a pattern: US interventions have ranged from covert intelligence operations to full military invasions, with outcomes that often diverge from initial promises. Short‑term tactical successes have sometimes produced long‑term instability or unintended consequences, complicating regional politics for decades.
This article was originally published in German.