Since 2016, Baden-Württemberg in southwestern Germany has been governed by the environmentalist Greens in coalition with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Days before the March 8 election, polls show the two parties running almost even. Current premier Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens, who will turn 78 in May, is not standing for re-election.
The CDU holds a slight lead in recent surveys, but the Greens remain close enough that the outcome is uncertain. A CDU victory would mark a return to tradition in this economically powerful state of about 11 million people: from the early 1950s until 2011, Baden-Württemberg was run by the CDU, until Kretschmann ended that long hold.
The state is often seen as structurally conservative, yet it has been a Green stronghold not only in cities such as Stuttgart and the university town of Tübingen, but also across rural areas.
Baden-Württemberg is one of Europe’s most dynamic economic regions. Unemployment is low and the state is home to major carmakers like Mercedes-Benz and Porsche, as well as many successful family-owned firms. Of Germany’s 1,000 largest companies, 190 are based here. The state also borders France to the west and Switzerland to the south.
The Greens’ lead candidate is Cem Özdemir, a nationally recognized figure who served as federal agriculture minister and earlier led the Green party. After trailing the CDU for a long stretch, Özdemir has closed the gap in the campaign period. He is considerably more popular than the CDU’s candidate, Manuel Hagel, and previously won one of the Greens’ few direct Bundestag mandates in Stuttgart in the 2021 federal election.
Roberto Heinrich, an election researcher at infratest-dimap, which polls for public broadcaster ARD, says Özdemir attracts support beyond the Green base, appealing to older voters and even some CDU supporters.
Hagel, by contrast, has faced criticism over sexist remarks from an eight-year-old video that resurfaced after being shared by a Green politician. In the clip he described visiting a school class largely made up of girls and recalled the first student who asked a question by noting her appearance; he has since called those comments “rubbish.” Lately, Hagel has focused attacks on the far right’s economic positions.
The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is struggling in Baden-Württemberg. A result under ten percent would be a major setback for the SPD and could dampen morale in the federal government in Berlin, where the SPD governs alongside the conservatives under Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Heinrich says the long-running duel between Greens and CDU for state control has pushed the SPD to the margins. For a decade the SPD has also faced competition from the right, which addresses social and economic issues that overlap with traditional social democratic concerns.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party with partly right-wing extremist tendencies, polls at around 20%. Its leading regional figure, Markus Frohnmaier, is a well-known Bundestag deputy and the AfD parliamentary group’s deputy leader in Berlin, but he has said he does not plan to enter the state parliament. His chances of becoming premier are essentially nil; both CDU frontrunner Hagel and Green candidate Özdemir have ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
Heinrich notes the AfD’s backing comes from diverse groups: support is particularly strong among middle-aged men, workers and people dissatisfied with their economic situation.
This election will be the first held under recent reforms to the state electoral system. Voters will cast two votes—as in federal elections—one for a direct candidate in one of the 70 constituencies and a second for a party list that determines seat distribution in the state parliament. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds are eligible to vote; previously the minimum age was 18.
The Greens’ Winfried Kretschmann was so popular that his 2021 campaign posters simply read “You know me”
Image: Oliver Zimmermann/foto2press/picture alliance
This article was originally written in German.
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