Massive US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s sharp retaliation have deepened the Middle East crisis, and a new ARD Deutschlandtrend poll shows broad alarm among Germans. Conducted by infratest-dimap among 1,317 eligible voters from March 2–4, the survey finds roughly three-quarters of respondents feel threatened by the international situation and are very worried.
A clear majority in Germany disapproves of the US-Israeli operation: about 60% say the strikes are not justified. That opposition is substantial but lower than in some past interventions—72% rejected US strikes on Venezuela in 2026, and 80% viewed the 2003 Iraq War as unjustified, the survey notes.
Attitudes differ by party support. Only around 48% of AfD and CDU/CSU voters condemn the attacks, while roughly 82% of voters for parties left of center oppose them. Three-quarters of all respondents fear the conflict could spread to other countries, and eight in ten worry about consequences for global trade.
Practical effects are already being felt. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers stranded and pushing up oil prices—moves that have translated into higher fuel costs at German pumps. Concern for the Iranian population is also high: about seven in ten Germans say they worry for ordinary people in Iran.
Many respondents fear a broader erosion of international norms. A wide majority expressed concern that, amid so many global conflicts, “might makes right” is increasingly trumping international law.
Trust in major powers is low. Only 15% regard the United States as a reliable partner for Germany (unchanged since January), and just 12% trust Russia. Israel is viewed skeptically as well, with nearly seven in ten Germans not considering it a trustworthy partner. Opinions on Ukraine are mixed—roughly four in ten express trust while just under half remain doubtful—whereas France and the UK are seen as reliable partners by most respondents.
Perceptions of threat to Germany have risen sharply since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when slightly more than half considered the global situation a threat to German security; today that share tops three-quarters.
The government in Berlin is preoccupied. The Gulf crisis comes on top of domestic pressures: a weak economy and an aging population are straining public finances and social services. Analysts warn a prolonged war in Iran could further damage the global economy and hit Germany hard.
The coalition of CDU/CSU and the SPD has been in office for ten months. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) pledged improvements, but voters have yet to see a meaningful economic upswing. Satisfaction with the government is mainly confined to conservative supporters; overall, about three-quarters of those surveyed say they are dissatisfied—similar levels to the previous center-left government that fell after three years.
If a federal election were held now, the Deutschlandtrend figures show the governing parties without a majority. Current standings: CDU/CSU 28% (+2), SPD 14% (−1), AfD 23% (−1), Greens 13% (+1), Left 9% (−1). No other party clears the 5% threshold for Bundestag representation.
This article was originally written in German.