Deep in a Bavarian forest, geologist Jürgen Grötsch pushes through low branches toward a secret spot he believes hides a valuable resource. With two students, he hammers a one‑meter hole, inserts a gas sensor and “sniffs” the ground for hydrogen. When the display rises to just over 500 parts per million — about 0.05% of the sample — Grötsch sees a jackpot: roughly 1,000 times the hydrogen concentration in ambient air.
Hydrogen has been touted by leaders and industry as a way to decarbonize sectors that need intense heat, such as shipping and heavy industry. Unlike fossil fuels, hydrogen combustion emits no CO2, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand could triple by 2050. The problem is production: most hydrogen today is made from fossil fuels; less than 1% comes from renewable-powered electrolysis, which is expensive.
Natural, or “white,” hydrogen offers a different path. It forms in the Earth’s crust through geochemical reactions that have been occurring for billions of years. In a process called serpentinization, iron‑rich mantle rocks react with water at 200–350°C, stripping oxygen from the water and leaving molecular hydrogen. This hydrogen can migrate upward through cracks and accumulate in porous reservoirs such as sandstone, sealed beneath impermeable rock layers.
Researchers estimate about 5.6 trillion tons of hydrogen exist in the Earth’s crust. Much is too deep to access, but a 2024 US Geological Survey analysis suggested that tapping just 2% could cover global hydrogen demand for 200 years.
Where natural hydrogen is being used today is limited. The best known example is a well in Bourakébougou, Mali, where hydrogen has produced local electricity for over a decade. Its output, about 49 tons per year, is small compared with typical fossil gas wells that yield hundreds to thousands of tons annually, but it demonstrates viability. At that site the flow pressure has remained consistent since operations began 14 years ago, suggesting the source is continuously replenished and, if extraction rates do not exceed formation rates, technically renewable.
Grötsch aims to commercialize white hydrogen in Bavaria at roughly $1 (€0.87) per kilogram, comparable to hydrogen made from fossil fuels. He plans to extract 1,000 tons annually by 2030 from a reservoir about 1,500 meters deep. The project also targets geothermal heat from the same reservoirs to supply hot water and district heating as a fallback if hydrogen production underperforms.
Despite the promise, obstacles remain. Only a handful of countries officially recognize natural hydrogen as a resource, complicating permits and access to subsidies. This regulatory uncertainty, combined with limited proven commercial projects, deters large oil and gas companies from committing capital. Analysts say majors are watching while startups de‑risk the field; once a commercially significant producer emerges, a rush for acreage is expected.
Outlook estimates vary. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie projects a best‑case scenario of 20 million tons of natural hydrogen per year by 2050, which the IEA says would represent about 6.7% of projected demand. For early explorers like Grötsch, the effort feels pioneering: “We are at a stage where 150 years back, the oil and gas industry was,” he says. Researchers and entrepreneurs hope natural hydrogen can become a meaningful, lower‑carbon complement to manufactured hydrogen as the energy transition progresses.
Edited by: Tamsin Walker