Every year before the Oscars, movie fans turn into armchair bettors, debating odds, frontrunners and likely upsets. The 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, promise one of the more unpredictable ceremonies in recent memory.
Two original, critically acclaimed and commercially successful films — Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another — are the top contenders for best picture. The best actor contest also looks tight, with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) competing for attention.
Sinners vs. One Battle After Another
Sinners leads the field with a record 16 nominations, surpassing the previous high of 14 shared by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land. From his indie beginnings to blockbuster success, Coogler has built a spotless résumé, and with Sinners he delivers a personal, ambitious genre film.
Set in 1932, Sinners stars Jordan in dual roles as twins Stack and Smoke, gangsters who return to the Jim Crow South and confront a supernatural threat in the form of Irish-immigrant vampires. The film blends a probing look at America’s history of racial violence and cultural appropriation with slick entertainment value, and has grossed more than $370 million worldwide — the biggest box-office film in the Oscar race.
Sinners could rewrite Academy history: Coogler might become the first Black director to win best director, and producer Zinzi Coogler could make history as the first Black woman to win best picture. The film also has a shot at topping the all-time record of 11 Oscar wins, currently held by Ben‑Hur, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.
Despite its haul, bookmakers favor Sinners strongly in only a few categories — best original screenplay and the new best casting award. For the top prizes, many oddsmakers put One Battle After Another ahead.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s film has been the presumptive best picture favorite since its fall debut. A freewheeling comedy-action-adventure adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland, it stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a washed-up revolutionary forced back into action when his biracial daughter is kidnapped. The film oscillates between political satire and absurdity, depicting migrant camps, sanctuary cities under siege and a cartoonish domestic extremist movement. Anderson, with 14 prior nominations but no wins, appears poised for a major night.
Other contenders such as Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet and Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme seem less likely to top either Sinners or One Battle, though they remain part of a crowded field.
Acting Races and the Chalamet Backlash
Jessie Buckley, who plays Agnes in Hamnet, is the clear front-runner for best actress. The performance is widely seen as the category’s most secure lock in a season that otherwise feels open.
The best actor race has grown complicated. Chalamet, nominated for Marty Supreme, was a favorite after two prior nominations, but a campaign misstep — a viral remark downplaying ballet and opera as art forms “no one cares about” — triggered backlash and may have cost him support. As a result, Michael B. Jordan has surged in the betting markets and is now viewed as the odds-on favorite.
Supporting categories could produce surprises. Sean Penn’s menacing turn in One Battle After Another faces off with veteran Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value. In best supporting actress, Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) form a competitive trio, each with distinctive, transformative roles.
International and Studio Battles
In best international feature, Sentimental Value — which dominated the European Film Awards — is the leading contender among a strong group that includes Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident and Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent.
The larger industry narrative — studios versus streaming — leans toward the old guard this year. Netflix is expected to capture some technical awards for Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, and its surprise hit K Pop Demon Hunters seems likely for best animated feature and best original song with the chart-topping “Golden.” Still, Warner Bros., which produced both One Battle After Another and Sinners, looks poised to be the evening’s big winner unless an upset occurs.
A mood of unease will temper any celebration. Warner Bros.’ anticipated dominance comes amid a looming takeover by Paramount Global, further industry consolidation, and mounting anxiety over AI’s disruptive potential for the film business. Chalamet’s plea — made in the same interview that produced his controversial comment — to “keep movie theaters alive” and protect cinema’s institutions underlines Hollywood’s nervousness about its future.
With top prizes split between two inventive, very different films, and several categories wide open, the 98th Oscars could deliver both historic firsts and unexpected outcomes — a rare awards night where few winners feel predetermined.
Edited by: Elizabeth Grenier
