While global attention is fixed on the war involving Iran, Israel and the United States, an escalating “open war” between Afghanistan and Pakistan risks creating a separate strategic ripple across the region.
Taliban rulers in Kabul accused Pakistan of carrying out an airstrike that killed at least 400 people at a drug treatment hospital in Kabul late Monday. Afghan officials said the strike hit the 2,000-bed rehabilitation facility around 9 p.m. local time, causing extensive damage and leaving hundreds wounded. Pakistan denied targeting civilian infrastructure, saying its armed forces conducted “precision airstrikes” aimed at “military installations and terrorist support infrastructure,” according to information minister Attaullah Tarar.
Islamabad and the Taliban government have traded blame over the latest escalation. Pakistan says it is responding to attacks from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which it claims operate from Afghan territory; the Taliban reject the accusation. In recent days Pakistani strikes have extended beyond suspected TTP targets to Afghan military sites.
On March 1, Pakistan reportedly attacked the former US Air Force base in Bagram. Satellite imagery and reports indicated a hangar and two warehouses were destroyed, though the Taliban said the attack was repelled and the base sustained no damage. Bagram’s involvement shifts the conflict’s dimensions: until 2021 it was the center of US operations in Afghanistan and is seen by some as strategically important because of its proximity to China. Washington reportedly explored reusing the base; the Taliban have rejected any return of US forces.
The timing — Pakistan’s attack on Bagram coinciding with the second day of coordinated US-Israeli attacks on Iran — highlights how multiple regional conflicts are unfolding simultaneously, even without direct links between them.
Pakistan and the Taliban have a complicated history. During the Taliban’s first rule from 1996 to 2001, Pakistan was among the few countries to diplomatically recognize the regime. Observers and former officials have pointed to financial, logistical, and security ties between elements of Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment and the Taliban. After the Taliban retook power in 2021, relations with Islamabad initially appeared close: senior Pakistani security figures visited Kabul and Pakistan worked to limit Afghanistan’s isolation. In recent months, however, tensions have risen sharply. Islamabad accuses the Taliban of not acting decisively against the TTP; the Taliban deny supporting Pakistani insurgents but also resist large-scale operations against them. A once-close strategic partnership has become strained.
Pakistan says it faces an “existential threat” from escalating TTP attacks, a view shared by analysts like Huma Baqai, an international relations expert in Pakistan, who told DW that the strikes are necessary from a security-policy standpoint. She added there is no direct US military support but suggested Pakistan likely has Washington’s tacit approval to continue operations.
Bagram’s geopolitical significance underscores wider regional sensitivities. If the US were to reestablish a presence there, it would be in proximity to Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China. Iran’s de-facto ambassador to Afghanistan publicly thanked the Taliban for refusing to allow a US return to Bagram, suggesting a US presence might have drawn Afghanistan into conflict with Tehran. Iran, which — aside from Russia — does not formally recognize the Taliban, has nonetheless said official recognition was “on the table” and could happen soon.
Analysts see the timing of Pakistan’s moves as opportunistic. Sardar Rahimi, an Afghan researcher in Paris, said the attacks coinciding with the Iran conflict create a strategic opening for Pakistan, which is economically and militarily vulnerable in its fight against Taliban-linked forces. He argued Islamabad cannot sustain the campaign without tacit US support or an international guarantee; striking Bagram sends a signal that Pakistan is willing to assume security responsibilities in a space the US vacated.
Sultan Ahmad Baheen, a former Afghan ambassador to China, suggested multiple motives: exploiting the distraction offered by developments in Iran to draw less international scrutiny, weakening the TTP, and diverting attention from Pakistan’s domestic political and economic problems. Media reports also indicated that former US military facilities, where American weapons might still be stored, were among the targets—fueling speculation that Pakistan acted with a “green light” from Washington in mind.
Longer-term, Baheen said Islamabad follows a familiar doctrine: preferring a politically dependent, unstable Afghanistan to one fully independent of Pakistani influence. The aim is not necessarily the overthrow of the Taliban but limiting or weakening forces in Kabul that resist Pakistani interests.
The overlapping crises complicate the regional balance: Pakistan’s strikes, the Taliban’s responses, TTP cross-border attacks, and the larger Iran confrontation mean multiple fault lines could interact unpredictably. As the international community focuses on the Iran war, the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict risks further escalation with significant humanitarian and strategic consequences.
Additional reporting by Haroon Janjua, DW reporter in Islamabad.
Edited by: Wesley Rahn