The Trump administration on March 5 issued a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to resume purchases of Russian oil, a move aimed at easing global supply strains after recent attacks on Iran and resulting disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the measure is intended as a “stop-gap” and suggested Washington could consider further easing sanctions by “unsanctioning” Russian crude that is already at sea.
The decision marks a notable policy shift. When President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an interim trade deal last month, a key element was India agreeing to reduce purchases of Russian oil—something Trump had repeatedly criticized. Bessent said the short-term license would help relieve pressure created by Iran’s actions without significantly enriching the Kremlin because it only covers oil already loaded onto vessels before March 5 and delivered to Indian buyers.
Surging oil prices—peaking near $119 a barrel before falling below $110—have prompted the US and other G7 members to seek ways to blunt the price shock. Given that India is the world’s third-largest crude importer, US officials argued that allowing India to take Russian barrels already circulating in global markets would help increase supply quickly.
The temporary license authorizes transactions involving Russian crude and petroleum products on ships loaded before March 5, provided they are delivered to India and bought by Indian companies. Ben Hilgenstock, a sanctions specialist at the Kyiv School of Economics, said the US is looking for quick fixes and that stranded Russian cargoes are an obvious short-term source. Bessent noted there are “hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels” at sea that, if un-sanctioned, could create additional supply.
For India, the reprieve offers immediate relief. New Delhi ramped up purchases of discounted Russian oil after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine but agreed earlier this year to pull back under sustained pressure from Washington. That retreat was easier while global prices remained relatively low and alternative supplies were available. Indian refineries typically hold less than a month’s worth of crude, making them vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes. Analysts say the waiver helps maintain feedstock availability and gives refiners a supply cushion.
India had replaced much Russian crude with purchases from Middle Eastern producers—Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE—but roughly half of its imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, leaving it exposed to disruptions. Russia had already diverted some cargoes toward Indian waters in anticipation of a potential reprieve. Market observers expect the waiver to reduce prices modestly; if barrels that would otherwise have gone to China or other Asian buyers are redirected to India, the overall market effect may be limited.
Has India really stopped buying Russian oil? Since Washington relaxed tariffs to secure New Delhi’s agreement to curb Russian purchases in early February, Indian refiners had cut buys by about half from their June 2025 peak. That decline was expected to continue before the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Analysts warn the 30-day measure is temporary and does not remove India’s longer-term exposure to Middle Eastern supply risks; refiners would prefer a longer extension so they can retain access to competitively priced Russian barrels while keeping a diversified crude slate.
Will the reprieve help Russia? If the waiver is not extended, analysts say it is unlikely to materially boost Russian revenues. Other Asian buyers likely would have taken the oil anyway, meaning Russian export volumes may only be redirected rather than increased. Russia’s energy revenues fell roughly 20% in 2025 as lower prices and sanctions, notably on Rosneft and Lukoil, depressed returns and forced deeper discounts for buyers. Hilgenstock notes that Russian benchmark prices have at times fallen to around $30 a barrel, a severe strain, and that any temporary gains from Middle East disruptions would likely fade once the conflict ends and sanctions remain in place.
Critics argue that loosening sanctions whenever market disruptions occur weakens resolve, pointing out a pattern of rolling back restrictions to address immediate price pressures. Bessent’s comments about potentially “unsanctioning” oil already at sea underscore the US government’s willingness to use targeted exceptions to stabilize markets.
Edited by: Andreas Becker
Editor’s note: This article, originally published on March 6, has been updated to reflect US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s suggestion that sanctions on additional Russian oil might be eased.
