On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced “economic independence” for the US, imposing sweeping tariffs on virtually every country. The US Supreme Court later ruled against the unprecedented move, but the administration has signaled it may press ahead with similar measures.
DW analyzed trade data on the origin of US imports over the past year to answer: What have Trump’s tariffs achieved? How is the rest of the world adjusting? And who, if anyone, is benefiting?
April 2, 2025: White House announces “Liberation Day” tariffs
Under the “Liberation Day” plan, the White House said every country — with some exemptions for sanctions and pre-existing trade deals — would face a 10% baseline tariff on goods exported to the US. Additionally, 85 countries that export more to the US than they import would be subject to higher tariffs of up to 50%.
Chaos followed. Global stock markets plunged. Trump publicly insisted big business was not worried, but on April 9 he announced a 90-day pause of all tariffs exceeding the 10% baseline. During that pause, partners including the EU, Vietnam and the UK rushed to negotiate lower country-specific rates. Talks with China remained tumultuous, with tit-for-tat tariffs reaching up to 125% in rounds of escalation.
After several last-minute extensions, country-specific rates finally came into effect on August 7, 2025.
Early 2025: US importers stockpile in expectation of tariffs
Before April, US companies anticipated higher costs and rushed to fill warehouses. Imports rose sharply: between January and March 2025, US firms brought in roughly 20% more goods than the 2022–2024 average — about $184 billion extra. Anticipating higher tariffs on gold bullion, the US imported roughly 50 times its usual volume in early 2025, about $72 billion, largely from Switzerland and some unusual suppliers such as Uzbekistan, the Philippines and Zimbabwe. Big manufacturers across Asia — Taiwan, Vietnam and India — also recorded notable export increases to the US.
April to July 2025: US companies shift to lower-tariff countries
The three-month suspension gave importers a window to reconfigure supply chains. Studies show firms overwhelmingly tried to shift sourcing toward countries with lower tariff rates. “Imports were like water, flowing from high-tariff countries to low-tariff countries,” says Haishi Li, an economist at Hong Kong University.
The largest shift away was from China, which faced the highest and most volatile tariff threats. Between April and July 2025, the US imported $66 billion less from China than during the same period in previous years. Canada, separately threatened with 25% tariffs, saw exports to the US fall by about $24 billion but largely compensated by redirecting trade elsewhere: Canada’s overall exports in 2025 were only $1.6 billion lower than in 2024.
Countries that benefited most were those facing only the 10% baseline, including Australia and many Latin American exporters. But some high-tariff countries also experienced import surges because they were close substitutes for Chinese supply. Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand — despite facing reciprocal tariffs of roughly 34%, 46% and 36% respectively in some cases — saw increased exports to the US. The US recorded an additional $34 billion in imports from Taiwan between April and July, as companies sought alternative suppliers already linked into US supply chains.
US consumers bear the brunt of tariff costs
So far, tariffs have not brought significant production back to the US. “This past year has been quite bad for manufacturing and employment,” says Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation. Growth has been concentrated in sectors relatively insulated from tariffs due to exemptions (for example, computers and AI-related products).
Total import value largely returned to normal soon after the initial shock, but US customs revenue surged. In 2025 the US Treasury collected $287 billion in customs duties and related taxes — roughly triple previous years’ totals. That revenue accounted for about 5% of all taxes collected in 2025, and early data suggest 2026 may top that.
Research indicates the higher tariffs were almost fully paid by US importers rather than foreign exporters. That cost has been passed on to US households: Durante estimates the tariffs effectively cost each US household about $1,000 in 2025, reflecting higher prices, reduced investment, employment cuts, or lower wages.
Uncertainty plagues international exporters
Since August 2025, global trade has been marked by hastily brokered and quickly unraveled trade deals alongside new tariff threats aimed at specific countries or product groups. The February Supreme Court ruling struck down the legal basis for the original “Liberation Day” tariffs, but with a new 15% blanket tariff rate in place and signs the administration is seeking other means to levy higher duties, exporters and importers remain uncertain about future policy direction.
To adapt, governments are likely to support firms exploring new markets outside the US. Diversifying supply chains could increase resilience and may be a silver lining amid heightened trade unpredictability.
Edited by: Gianna Grün and Andreas Becker
Data, code and methodology behind this story can be found in the DW data repository. More data-driven stories by DW are available online.