The first two state elections of the year have passed and pressure on Germany’s federal coalition is mounting. To avoid upsetting voters in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the CDU/CSU–SPD government parked major initiatives for weeks. At the same time, much‑needed reforms that would require cuts or trade‑offs in social benefits remain unresolved.
When Friedrich Merz became chancellor in May 2025 he pledged an “autumn of reforms,” but those plans largely failed to materialize. Extended periods of inertia and political stalemate are now exacting a cost at the ballot box and in public opinion. The latest ARD Deutschlandtrend, conducted by Infratest dimap, finds a record 84% of respondents dissatisfied with the government’s performance. The poll surveyed a representative sample of 1,316 eligible voters over the final two days of March.
Leadership ratings have tumbled. Merz’s personal approval dropped to 21% (down 8 points) while Vice‑Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD) fell to 18% (down 15), both their lowest levels since taking office. If a federal vote were held now the coalition parties would be well short of a majority: CDU/CSU stand at 26% and SPD at 12%—each down two points from last March, with the SPD at a low not seen since 2019.
The AfD has gained ground, rising two points to 25%. The Greens and The Left each picked up one point, to 14% and 10% respectively. Smaller parties remain below the 5% threshold: Sahra Wagenknecht’s Alliance (BSW) and the FDP are both at 3%.
Economic concerns dominate public sentiment. After three years of recession and a further year of stagnation, manufacturing is contracting and some jobs and production are shifting overseas. Any recovery signs have been weakened by the war in Iran; if energy costs remain elevated or rise again, inflation could surge anew. Seven in ten voters say they do not trust the government to take the steps needed to improve the economy.
The coalition has sketched a mix of short‑ and long‑term measures—tax cuts, lower energy prices, investment incentives, lighter bureaucracy and further consumer relief planned after Easter 2026. On labor policy, officials are debating allowing longer fixed‑term contracts; the public is narrowly split (48% in favor, 44% opposed). There is strong cross‑party backing (74%) for faster recognition of foreign professional qualifications to speed migrants into work, although only 48% of AfD supporters agree; approval among other parties’ voters ranges from 83% to 95%.
Tax and social policy debates are contentious. To close budget gaps and encourage higher female labor participation, the coalition is considering ending the “spousal splitting” tax benefit; 54% oppose that change while 32% support it. A general rise in value‑added tax is overwhelmingly rejected (91%). Overall, 66% feel their tax burden is too high and 28% find it appropriate. About 76% favor packages that pair tax relief for low‑ and middle‑income households with higher taxes on top earners.
Demographic trends are putting long‑term strain on pensions, health care and long‑term care: Germany’s rapidly aging population means fewer workers supporting more retirees. Seventy‑four percent of respondents do not trust the government to take necessary measures to secure the social‑security system. Three expert commissions are drafting reform proposals; the health commission published its recommendations at the end of March.
On health financing, a majority of citizens back higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and sugary drinks to support statutory health insurance. Views are more split on other ideas: equal numbers oppose and support higher copayments for medicines and treatments, and proposals such as ending free spouse coverage or capping reimbursements for private practitioners and hospitals elicit significant resistance.
The coalition faces a difficult trade‑off: it must deliver visible, short‑term economic relief while advancing credible, sustainable reforms — many of which will involve painful choices about taxes and benefits. The Deutschlandtrend results suggest broad public skepticism that the government can carry out both tasks successfully.
Originally published in German.