The first two state elections of the year are over, and pressure is rising on Germany’s federal government. For weeks the CDU/CSU–SPD coalition shelved major governing initiatives to avoid alienating voters in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Meanwhile, overdue reforms that will require citizens to accept cuts to social benefits remain unaddressed.
After taking office in May 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised an “autumn of reforms,” but it never materialized. Long periods of inaction and gridlock are now exacting a political price. The latest ARD Deutschlandtrend survey shows 84% of respondents — a record high since Merz’s government took power — are dissatisfied with its performance. The poll, by infratest dimap, interviewed a representative sample of 1,316 eligible voters over the last two days of March.
Popularity losses extend to party leaders. Merz’s approval rating fell to 21% (-8), and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD) dropped to 18% (-15), both their lowest marks since taking office. If a federal election were held now, the CDU/CSU and SPD would be far from a majority. Compared with last March, both parties lost two percentage points: CDU/CSU at 26% and SPD down to 12%, its 2019 low.
The AfD gained two points to 25%. The Greens and the Left each rose one point to 14% and 10%, respectively. Other parties remain below the 5% threshold: Sahra Wagenknecht’s Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democrats (FDP) are both at 3%.
Economic worries loom large. After three years of recession and one year of stagnation, industry is shrinking and jobs and production are being relocated abroad. Recent signs of improvement have been erased by the war in Iran; if energy prices stay high or climb further, a new inflation wave is possible. Seventy percent of citizens do not trust the government to take the measures needed to improve the economy.
The coalition has outlined a package of short- and long-term measures: tax cuts, lower energy prices, investment incentives, reduced bureaucracy, and further consumer relief planned after Easter 2026. On labor market policy, the government is considering allowing longer fixed-term contracts; the public is divided, with 48% in favor and 44% opposed. There is strong cross-party support (74%) for faster recognition of foreign professional qualifications to speed migrant entry into the workforce — though only 48% of AfD voters agree, while approval among other parties’ supporters ranges from 83% to 95%.
Tax and social-policy debates are contentious. To plug budget holes and encourage higher female labor participation, the coalition is considering abolishing the “spousal splitting” tax benefit. Some 54% oppose this, 32% support it. A general rise in value-added tax is rejected by 91% of respondents. Overall, 66% feel their tax burden is too high, 28% consider it appropriate. About 76% back measures that combine tax breaks for low- and middle-income groups with higher income taxes on high earners.
Demographic change is straining pensions, health care and long-term care. Germany’s rapidly aging population means fewer workers supporting more retirees, creating long-term sustainability problems. Seventy-four percent of respondents don’t trust the government to take the necessary steps to secure the social security system. Three expert commissions are working on reform proposals; the health commission published its findings at the end of March.
Among the health commission’s suggested measures, a majority of citizens favor higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and soft drinks to relieve public health insurance. But opinions split on other proposals: as many people oppose higher copayments for medicines and treatments as support them, and many reject ending free spouse coverage or capping reimbursements for private practitioners and hospitals.
The coalition faces a difficult balancing act: delivering visible economic relief and credible long-term reforms while managing public resistance to cuts or tax shifts. The Deutschlandtrend results show broad skepticism that the government can meet that challenge.
This article was originally published in German.