The announcement of a two‑week ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the United States has paused a 40‑day cycle of intense attack and retaliation. Civilians have borne the brunt: thousands killed or injured, many displaced, and homes, infrastructure and livelihoods devastated in Iran, Israel and across the region. Despite the ceasefire with Tehran, Israel has continued heavy strikes against Iranian‑backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, carrying out some of the heaviest bombardments since that front intensified.
War has no winners, but it reshapes alliances, energy markets and global influence. Examining the conflict shows shifts well beyond the Middle East.
Iran: regime under pressure, but still standing
Since February 28, US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military and energy infrastructure. Rights groups report thousands killed, including senior political and military figures and many children. Despite heavy losses, the core of Iran’s political system remains intact and there is no evident movement toward regime change, analysts say.
Tehran took high‑risk measures, effectively limiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil — driving up prices and increasing pressure on the US and allies. The tactic helped secure a ceasefire without clear concessions, allowing Iran to portray the outcome as survival against overwhelming force. US President Donald Trump accepted Iran’s 10‑point plan as a basis for talks, giving Tehran time to shape the next phase on more favorable terms.
United States: military gains, political limits
The US and its partners say they degraded parts of Iran’s conventional military, naval and ballistic capabilities and damaged elements of its nuclear program — outcomes Washington had sought. But the US also suffered material losses: radars and aircraft were damaged or destroyed, and its reputation as a protector of Gulf allies took a hit after Iran struck not only American bases but also key regional infrastructure.
Washington’s decision to launch operations without full consultation strained relations with Europe and NATO. The ceasefire reduced immediate risks to US forces and eased pressure on oil markets as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, but the conflict did not reshape Iran’s behavior as decisively as intended. The US will return to negotiations, facing limits to its political gains.
Israel: tactical gains, long‑term risks
Israel significantly weakened aspects of Iran’s military capabilities and demonstrated long‑range strike capacity while maintaining strong US backing. Yet Iranian missile barrages stressed Israeli air defenses and caused civilian casualties, exposing vulnerabilities. Analysts warn of diplomatic damage in Israel’s neighborhood, with Gulf states now less likely to deepen ties.
China: a long‑term beneficiary
China stands to gain strategically. US redeployment of military assets to the Middle East reduces Washington’s focus and resources for the Indo‑Pacific, where Beijing competes for influence. China’s calls for restraint and praise for the ceasefire framed it as a responsible actor protecting economic interests. Beijing imports over 80% of Iran’s oil, often at discounts, and has built large energy reserves that help it weather price shocks.
Russia: profiting from disruption
Energy price spikes during the fighting bolstered Russian revenues at a time its budget is strained by the war in Ukraine. Sanctions pressures eased temporarily as countries sought alternate supplies. Global attention diverted from Ukraine, and US shifts in military focus mean weapon systems demanded by Ukraine may be less available. Nonetheless, Iran’s weakening is also a geopolitical loss for Moscow, which counted Tehran among its regional partners.
The Gulf states: gains mixed with exposure
Iranian strikes damaged energy facilities and shattered senses of security across the Gulf. Some, like Saudi Arabia, sustained oil flows by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via the East‑West Pipeline and profited from higher prices, improving their budgets. Others, notably the UAE, faced greater exposure: heavy reliance on foreign workers and investors means security fears damage their image as safe havens, a core element of their economic model.
Europe: economic pain and alliance strains
Higher energy prices hit European households and industries, while shipping disruptions and inflationary pressures compounded economic stress. The conflict deepened divisions within traditional alliances: many European governments refused to back US military operations or provide airspace for offensive missions. In turn, US threats to reconsider its NATO commitment intensified European anxieties.
Pakistan: diplomatic momentum
Pakistan brokered the ceasefire and is set to host further talks, marking a diplomatic success for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Leveraging ties to both Washington and Tehran, Islamabad quietly conveyed messages between parties for weeks. The outcome has enhanced Pakistan’s role as a regional power broker, while India remained largely on the sidelines and suffered from rising energy costs.
Edited by: Hannah Cleaver, Carla Bleiker