Efforts to broker a stable ceasefire in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and Israel have been ongoing for months with little progress. Last Sunday a Hamas delegation travelled to Cairo to discuss next steps with Egyptian mediators. The focus remains on unresolved issues from the first phase of the ceasefire agreed over half a year ago, and on whether a second — and final — phase is achievable.
Hamas, a militant Islamist group designated a terrorist organization by Germany, the EU, the US and others, triggered the devastating war in Gaza with its attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. A fragile ceasefire has been in effect since October 10, 2025, but it has been repeatedly undermined by isolated attacks. “Six months into the ceasefire, civilians in Gaza remain trapped amid attacks on civilians, restricted aid and an uncertain political process that is now shaping whether recovery will begin or collapse,” the Norwegian Refugee Council said on April 10.
The Board of Peace, launched with grand political ambitions by US President Donald Trump in January, has so far had little impact. Institutional structures have been set up and billions in funding promised, but much of the money has yet to arrive. “At the moment, everything seems to be going round and round in circles,” said Peter Lintl, Israel and Middle East observer at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Key issues — disarmament of Hamas, the future administration of Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli troops — remain unresolved, and functioning mechanisms to enforce any agreement are lacking.
Simon Wolfgang Fuchs, associate professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, says the talks are not making progress and deadlines have repeatedly passed. He describes a diplomatic stalemate “characterized more by mistrust than by rapprochement.”
A central sticking point is disarmament. The parties disagree whether Hamas must be disarmed first or whether Israel must withdraw its forces first. In late January, US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said independent international monitors would supervise a process of demilitarization of Gaza. Such proposals require fundamental concessions from both sides. “For Israel, the order is clear: disarmament first, then withdrawal. Whereas for Hamas, it is exactly the opposite,” Fuchs said. Hamas continues to control parts of Gaza and effectively acts as the ruling authority despite two years of Israel’s offensive, which involved targeted killings of Hamas officials and killed around 72,000 Palestinians.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains precarious and in many places has deteriorated. Civilians face supply shortages, rising prices and damaged infrastructure. “The situation is a downward spiral,” Fuchs said. Even when aid arrives, uncertainty remains high; memories of previous shortages and the famine of 2025 continue to reinforce a constant sense of threat. Reports suggest criticism of Hamas is brutally suppressed in its territories, and Palestinians fear permanent displacement by Israel.
The military situation is tense. Recent Israeli attacks on Hamas leaders have repeatedly caught civilians in the crossfire. An analysis published by Oxfam on April 10 concluded that Trump’s ceasefire plan is on the verge of failure. Central elements of the Gaza plan remain unimplemented and the planned technocratic body for civilian administration is still not in place.
Reconstruction funding is uncertain and prospects are dimmed by instability across the region. Gulf states that pledged significant reconstruction support are under pressure from the war in Iran; refineries, fields and export terminals damaged by missile and drone strikes will take months or years to repair, reducing available funds for Gaza. Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote that funds for Gaza are likely to be correspondingly scarce.
Analysts are skeptical of a near-term breakthrough. While a ceasefire makes daily life somewhat easier, a viable political solution is absent and renewed escalation remains possible at any time.
This article was originally written in German.
