Donald Trump’s public attacks on Pope Leo XIV — and a social media image that portrayed Trump as an AI-generated Jesus — prompted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to break with the US president. Meloni, leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, had been viewed as one of the few European leaders able to influence Trump. But when the pope criticized the US-Israeli approach to the conflict with Iran and called out leaders waging war, Trump labeled the pontiff “weak.” Meloni swiftly defended the pope, calling Trump’s remarks “unacceptable” and stressing that it is right for the head of the Catholic Church to call for peace and condemn war.
Trump reacted angrily, saying Meloni was “unacceptable” and “no longer the same person.” Losing Trump’s favor could mean losing political influence in Washington. Analysts argue, however, that Meloni may have calculated the split to protect her standing at home. A YouGov poll in March showed 80% of Italians had an unfavorable view of Trump, and many voters are especially wary now because the Iran war has driven up energy prices in gas-dependent Italy.
Italian experts point to mounting domestic pressures shaping Meloni’s stance. A SWG poll found nine in 10 Italians worried about the war’s effect on energy prices, and six in 10 opposed a broader war with Iran. Before the conflict, Italy imported around 10% of its gas from Qatar and was Europe’s largest importer of Qatari energy. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian strikes on Gulf facilities, including attacks on Qatar’s largest gas refinery, have pushed Italy to seek alternatives and raised electricity and fuel costs.
Those price increases have political consequences. Leo Goretti of the Istituto Affari Internazionali says higher diesel and fuel prices hit social groups that are likely conservative and pro-Meloni. Roberto D’Alimonte, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Florence, noted that Italians often associate higher bills and pump prices with Trump, making Meloni’s defense of the pope politically astute ahead of national elections.
Meloni’s distancing from Trump has been building. Her relationship cooled after she criticized Trump’s January suggestion about annexing Greenland. Observers say her open support for Israel during the Gaza war — where tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed — also damaged her domestic standing. Public anger over humanitarian violations and regional instability likely contributed to Meloni’s setback in a March judicial referendum, where 54% voted no in a contest widely read as a verdict on her government.
In response to the shifting landscape, Meloni has taken steps such as suspending a defense agreement with Israel and publicly opposing Trump’s attacks on the pope, moves seen as efforts to repair her image at home. Julien Hoez, editor and analyst, calls her a pragmatist: unpopular US ties, rising energy costs, a referendum defeat and sluggish GDP growth provide reasons to recalibrate. Defending the pope—who resides in Italy and is broadly popular—offered her a political opening.
International changes also matter. Viktor Orbán’s recent electoral defeat in Hungary, despite Trump’s outreach, has reduced the number of like-minded sovereigntist leaders in Europe. D’Alimonte suggests Meloni may now move closer to center-right European figures such as Germany’s Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron rather than the far right. Leo Goretti agrees that the hoped-for mediating role between the EU and Trump produced few benefits for Italy, and aligning with mainstream center-right governments could serve Meloni’s interests.
For the EU, Meloni’s split with Trump could limit the US president’s options to undermine European unity. Whatever the motive—principled defense of the pope, domestic political calculation, or strategic realignment—Meloni appears to be stepping away from Trump’s orbit. As D’Alimonte summed up, “Meloni is no longer Trump’s darling.” Edited by: M. Kuebler