Choked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz isn’t just slowing oil tankers. The Iran war has cut off exports and one of fertilizer production’s key inputs, creating a sharp hit to global supplies. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea — the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer — comes from the Gulf, as does about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Haber-Bosch process that makes ammonia, the basis for nitrogen fertilizers, combines atmospheric nitrogen with hydrogen derived from LNG, so disruptions to both shipping and gas supplies amplify the problem. Whether a temporary ceasefire reached on Tuesday will meaningfully ease the blockage remains uncertain.
Fertilizer and LNG plants from Qatar to Bangladesh have already begun shutting down. The immediate consequence is likely higher food prices, with the poorest countries hardest hit. Governments and farmers are weighing options to cope while supply stabilizes.
Government responses
The quickest moves are market levers to control supply or demand. Some governments can tap national food stocks: India holds large rice and wheat reserves it could release if supplies tighten. China, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, maintains large fertilizer stockpiles and has at times restricted exports to keep domestic supplies available. When Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered earlier fertilizer shocks, India increased its fertilizer subsidy by about 233% over its original budget to shield farmers from price spikes.
Export curbs and stockpiling are effectively zero-sum: they protect domestic consumers but worsen shortages elsewhere, and only wealthier countries can afford such measures. Neighbouring low-income countries — Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, for example — lack the fiscal room to subsidize or hoard supplies at the same scale.
Shifting crops
Farmers can respond by planting less fertilizer-intensive crops. Legumes such as soybeans fix nitrogen naturally, cutting fertilizer needs. Early US Department of Agriculture surveys predicted a modest shift for next season: soybean acreage up by about 4% and corn down by about 3% (these projections predate the most recent escalation in the fertilizer crisis). But switching crops isn’t always an option. In much of Asia, the monsoon limits cropping choices and rice remains a dietary staple, so abandoning rice production isn’t realistic for many farmers.
Using fertilizer more efficiently
Where crop choices can’t change, changing how fertilizer is used can help. Studies estimate that globally crops use only about half of applied fertilizer effectively; the rest leaches into groundwater or volatilizes into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. Precision agriculture — employing drones, sensors, cameras and AI — can monitor fields and apply just the right amount of fertilizer where and when plants need it. These technologies can cut waste and maintain yields, but they are often costly and harder to adopt quickly in poorer regions.
Policy and price signals matter as much as technology. When fertilizer is heavily subsidized, farmers have little incentive to conserve. In Bangladesh, a surge in urea prices in 2022 prompted farmers to cut use and rice production remained largely steady, showing that behavioral changes and better management can yield immediate benefits without high-tech investments. “There’s a lot of room to use this resource efficiently,” says Avinash Kishore of the International Food Policy Research Institute. “You don’t need some sudden injection of very expensive or complex technology.”
Alternative fertilizer approaches
Longer-term technological shifts aim to reduce reliance on fossil-fuel-derived nitrogen. Some startups and research programs develop microbial solutions that enable crops to access atmospheric nitrogen directly. Pivot Bio, for example, applies microbes to seeds that convert air nitrogen into plant-available forms and reported use across millions of acres in the US by 2023. Such biological fixes and other low-LNG production methods could reduce vulnerability to shipping chokepoints — but they are medium- to long-term solutions, not immediate fixes.
Outlook and urgency
For now, the immediate need is stabilization of fertilizer supplies. Market disruptions have already forced plant closures and supply losses “to an extent that we have never seen before,” according to Josh Linville of StoneX. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reopens reliably, some of the most acute pressures could ease. Until then, a mix of government interventions, crop choices where feasible, more efficient fertilizer use, and investments in alternative technologies will shape how countries and farmers navigate the shortfall.
Edited by: Sarah Steffen