The global aviation industry — including Africa’s fast‑growing sector — is struggling with the economic fallout from the Iran war, with steep jet fuel price rises and route disruptions hitting airlines, passengers and tourism businesses.
Jet fuel, a kerosene‑based product refined from crude oil and the primary fuel for aircraft, has surged in price and in some markets doubled, producing supply shortages. “The impact is that it has affected how much African carriers purchase aviation fuel for their operations,” Dominick Andoh, managing partner of AviationGhana, told DW.
Concerns about energy security have pushed global oil prices higher. In early trading this week, Brent crude traded near $98 a barrel — more than 30% above the level when the war began, Reuters reported. Analysts say the rise reflects fears a fragile ceasefire could collapse, especially after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted.
Andoh said the fuel spike has been passed on to travelers. “The prices of tickets have gone up,” he said. “If you look at the fuel surcharge margins for almost the tickets that have been sold since the war broke out, especially in April, the fuel surcharges have gone up by various percentages.”
Flight disruptions add to financial losses
Airspace restrictions around Gulf countries have forced rerouting or cancellations, increasing operational costs and reducing route efficiency. The result has been higher ticket prices and heavier financial strain on carriers.
Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote warned that “the majority of African airlines won’t be able to survive” the current spike in fuel costs. Ethiopian Airlines has been among the hardest hit: airline officials said the carrier was losing about $137 million each week because of the crisis, having cancelled more than 100 flights a week. Lemma Yadhecha, the airline’s business manager, told local media destinations that previously had multiple daily services were cut, contributing to the steep weekly losses.
A brief ceasefire raised hopes of improvement, but those expectations faded after parties reneged on the agreement.
Airlines turn to survival strategies
Faced with rising costs and disrupted Gulf connections, some African carriers are adapting. Kenya Airways said it is rerouting more European travelers through its Nairobi hub instead of using Gulf transit points. “We took advantage of the current situation and mainly re‑routed a lot of customers from Europe, instead of rerouting through the Gulf, they are back to re‑route through Kenya, through our hub in Nairobi,” CEO George Kamal told journalists.
Andoh suggested carriers could stockpile available aviation fuel and hedge against price volatility to ride out a prolonged crisis. But Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned recovery in fuel supplies would take time even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Given damage to refining capacity in the Middle East, Walsh said it would likely take months to restore supplies of jet fuel and other refined products to previous levels.
Tourism sector feels the ripple effects
The aviation crisis has spilled into tourism, an industry that depends heavily on reliable air links. In South Africa, Cape Town tour operator Emraan Roode said cancellations and uncertainty were already hurting livelihoods. “Cape Town is nominated one of the best places in the world for travelers to come and visit, and due to the war, Cape Town as a whole is suffering as well,” Roode told Reuters. He estimated losses of between 350,000 and 500,000 rand ($21,000–$30,000) over recent months as repeat international clients postponed trips amid the conflict.
Outlook
Despite the immediate strain, some industry figures remain cautiously optimistic. Andoh said aviation and tourism are resilient and expected to recover, pointing to the sectors’ rebound after COVID‑19. But the short‑ to medium‑term outlook depends on fuel supply dynamics, the duration of the conflict and whether carriers can secure hedges, alternative routings and sufficient fuel stocks.
Edited by: Keith Walker