Iran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted comparisons with the trade disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply-chain shifts prompted by US tariffs under Donald Trump. The pandemic revealed the world’s heavy reliance on China for manufacturing, while tariffs accelerated efforts to diversify supply sources. The war in Iran underscores a different vulnerability: how a sudden disruption to critical raw materials — notably oil, gas and fertilizers — can ripple across global trade.
The International Energy Agency described the recent loss of roughly 10% of the world’s oil supply and about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas as the largest shock in the history of the global energy market. Unlike the pandemic, which was primarily a broad demand shock that crippled factories and port operations and exposed weaknesses in just‑in‑time systems, the Iran war has delivered an acute supply-side blow concentrated on energy and commodities.
“COVID exposed overdependence on a manufacturing hub, while Hormuz exposed overdependence on a transport corridor and on energy inputs,” said Sebastian Janssen, partner at Oliver Wyman. During the pandemic, energy prices remained relatively steady even as non-energy trade was hit; this time energy and commodity prices have surged, forcing governments to revise inflation forecasts.
Shipping has been forced into abrupt rerouting. Tankers and gas carriers that once used Hormuz are now taking much longer detours around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of nautical miles and up to two weeks to voyages. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels in the Middle East have spiked, adding millions of dollars to each transit. Those added costs are already feeding into higher prices for energy, chemicals and manufactured goods.
Supply-chain expert Lisa Anderson of LMA Consulting Group says the sequence of crises has changed how companies assess risk. “COVID got companies to the point where they realized they can’t just count on supply showing up when they need it,” she said. “The Iran war shows it was not a one-off event.” Nearly two-thirds of firms surveyed in 13 countries expressed worry about further disruptions and higher energy and commodity prices; the Allianz Trade study of 6,000 companies found rising plans to accelerate reshoring or nearshoring, particularly in Europe.
The full economic impact may still be unfolding. Janssen cautioned that scarcity is still rippling through multi-tiered supply chains and that it could take months for the full effects to surface and for supply chains to stabilize once the Strait is fully reopened. In response, many companies are adopting a +1 or +2 approach — adding alternative sourcing countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia — and increasing inventory buffers. Just-in-time manufacturing is giving way to a “just-in-case” strategy, with safety stockpiling at its highest in three years per GEP’s March 2026 Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.
Geopolitical risk has climbed as a strategic priority: two-thirds of firms now list it as their top concern, reflecting fears from ongoing conflicts to future flashpoints like Taiwan or the Korean Peninsula. John Sfakianakis of the Gulf Research Center warned that vulnerability today hinges less on single-country dependence and more on resilience across interconnected systems — energy, finance, logistics and political cohesion. He described the Iran war as a stress test of how the international system functions under pressure.
As companies and governments adapt — rerouting shipments, paying higher premiums, and redesigning supply networks — the crisis highlights that resilience will require flexibility, redundancy and stronger strategic partnerships across entire supply networks. Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru