In Cairo, streets that once came alive at night are quiet and dark. The government has ordered all businesses, including cafes, shops and restaurants, to close at 9 p.m. to conserve energy, and streetlights are turned off. “Maybe for the states or for Europe 9 p.m. is not bad, but in Egypt usually we stay out until midnight or even after midnight. So this was a big shock for lots of people,” says Ahmed Kamaly, professor of economics at the American University in Cairo. The measure has led to unemployment and income loss for thousands, he says, as businesses can no longer operate during those lucrative hours.
These changes are part of the far-reaching consequences of the now eight-week-old war in Iran for countries across the Global South, especially in Africa and Asia because of their dependence on imports from the region. Shipments of oil and gas, fertilizer, food, medicines and more have been severely hampered by the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for international trade.
The impacts go beyond imports. Many households depend on remittances from relatives who work in the Gulf and send money home, but the war has caused economic disruption across the region, reducing job opportunities. Currencies are depreciating, inflation has spiked, and unemployment is rising. “There are so many things that are going to go south anyway because of this war,” Kamaly says.
Transport troubles in Africa
Steven Were Omamo, Africa director for the International Food Policy Research Institute in Nairobi, says the energy shock moves quickly through three channels that hit household budgets: fuel prices, transport costs and, ultimately, food prices. Across Africa, travel by car, bus or plane has become more expensive and less reliable. Fear of shortages has prompted panic buying. “I personally went out and bought more fuel and stored it at my farm. And I know others have done that, knowing that fuel shortages were coming, and they have indeed come,” Omamo says.
Apprehension in Asia
In Southeast Asia, anxiety hangs over daily life, says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok. “The anxiety … the stress …. Every day you wake up to the news, the latest from President Trump or the war in Iran, so the stress of it hangs over people,” he says. In Thailand, people have been told to work from home and use stairs instead of elevators to conserve energy, a moment that harkens back to pandemic restrictions. The energy crisis permeates everyday life, and regional supply linkages make smaller neighbors vulnerable: Thailand gets oil from the Gulf and then sells some supplies to others in the region, so Laos, which relies on petrol bought from Thailand, is in a precarious position.
Omamo warns of a looming food crisis. Fertilizer shortages have crippled major rice producers in the Philippines and Vietnam, causing farmers to plant less. The U.N. World Food Programme estimates that 45 million people globally could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict persists.
Adding to insecurity in Somalia
Somalia is particularly vulnerable, says Shukri Abdulkadir of the International Rescue Committee. The country faces instability, terrorist attacks that have displaced millions, and droughts since 2022. “Food security is actually becoming a more serious situation,” Abdulkadir says. “We’re almost nearing two years that we haven’t had good rains, and farmers are having difficulties keeping their harvest alive.” Shortages due to the war are exacerbating food insecurity. Key household staples — rice, flour, cooking oil, sugar and powdered milk — usually come through Dubai, and those shipments have been interrupted by the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
The longer the war continues, the worse conditions will get for these and many other countries, says Mirette Mabrouk, an economic development expert at the Middle East Institute. Even a peace deal today would not immediately resolve the damage already done. “At this rate, we’re looking at almost a year of damage, of raised energy prices the world over. It is already a morass,” she says. Many households are already poorer, and it will take a long time for prices to drop and for food and fuel shipments to return to pre-war levels, partly because of damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf.