Voter parking only signs are seen ahead of a rally for Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dr. Amy Acton at the Early Vote Center on April 28 in Cincinnati. Jon Cherry/Getty Images
Two very different Republican approaches to redistricting are on display in Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana and Ohio.
In Indiana, a high-profile effort to redraw maps failed last year. President Trump and his political operation have responded by targeting incumbent Republican state senators who opposed the plan, mounting primary challenges as a form of political retribution.
In Ohio, the state has been forced to adopt new congressional maps after courts struck down or rejected previous versions. The current plan makes only modest changes to existing lines and does not uniformly favor Republicans, creating a mixed landscape for both parties.
These primaries follow a U.S. Supreme Court decision that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a ruling that could encourage Republican-led states to eliminate some majority-minority districts and intensify a nationwide redistricting battle affecting 2026 and beyond.
At the same time, Trump’s low approval ratings and an unpopular second-term agenda have opened competitive paths for Democrats in Ohio this fall, particularly in statewide and U.S. Senate contests. Below are four key things to watch on primary day.
1) Trump’s retribution and the Indiana state Senate
Trump seldom endorses challengers against sitting Republicans, but in Indiana his operation is targeting seven state senators who voted against a plan to redraw House maps to create more Republican seats. Supporters of the primary challenges say they are holding lawmakers accountable; critics argue the White House is overreaching into state governance.
State Sen. Spencer Deery, one of the targeted incumbents, told NPR that the intervention contradicts conservative principles of state sovereignty, warning that D.C.-based political money controlling state politics undermines the 10th Amendment. Supporters of Trump’s stance, including Marty Obst, a consultant involved in the redistricting push, frame the challenge as consequences for thwarting a top priority.
2) Two notable House primary fights in Indiana
Most incumbents seeking reelection win with little serious primary opposition, but two Indiana House members face notable challenges.
Republican Rep. Jim Baird, 80, has Trump’s endorsement but has raised comparatively little money ($283,000 by April 15). His chief challenger, state Rep. Craig Haggard, reported $173,000 and has backing from state Attorney General Todd Rokita and many local officials. Outside groups have weighed in heavily: conservative Homeland PAC ran a digital ad blitz against Baird over his support for a bipartisan immigration bill, while a pro-crypto super PAC later spent to support him.
On the Democratic side, Rep. André Carson, the state’s longest-serving House member (in office since 2009), faces several challengers amid calls from some Democrats for fresh leadership.
3) Vulnerable House Democrats in Ohio will learn their November foes
Ohio’s delegation currently includes 10 Republicans and five Democrats. The new map, though only modestly different, reshuffles partisan lean in some districts and could make reelection tougher for Democrats in Cincinnati and Toledo while easing pressure in Akron.
Reps. Greg Landsman and Marcy Kaptur face rougher terrain under the new lines. Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in congressional history and in the House since 1983, narrowly won in 2024 and is again a top target. A crowded Republican field is vying to challenge her, including former state Rep. Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, former ICE deputy Madison Sheahan, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, and healthcare data executive Anthony Campbell.
Landsman’s GOP challengers include Trump-backed former CIA officer Eric Conroy and conservative activist Holly Adams. Rep. Emilia Sykes, whose Republican opponents have raised relatively little so far, may face a less intense contest.
4) Can Democratic enthusiasm hold through November?
Since Republicans gained a federal trifecta about a year and a half ago, many elections have swung toward Democrats, producing higher turnout and stronger primary participation across diverse states. In 2026, Democrats hope that continued enthusiasm, coupled with typical midterm dynamics favoring the out-of-power party, can flip key races in Ohio.
Early voting figures from the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office show more Democratic primary ballots cast than Republican ones by roughly an 11% margin. In the governor’s race, former state health director Amy Acton is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Vivek Ramaswamy’s endorsement by Trump in November 2025 has effectively cleared the Republican field. Ohio’s Senate primary is quiet: incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted is unopposed, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces a nominal primary opponent.
What these primaries will reveal
Tuesday’s contests will test Trump’s influence in state legislative fights, show whether incumbents in both parties can withstand intra-party challenges, and provide early signals about voter enthusiasm heading into November. Outcomes in Indiana will measure the potency of national pressure on state races; results in Ohio will clarify how new maps and shifting turnout could shape competitive fall matchups for governor, U.S. Senate, and the House delegation.