If fears about the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz materialize, passengers could face worsening travel disruption in the coming weeks and months. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned that a shortage of jet fuel would hit air traffic hard.
Airlines are already passing higher fuel costs to customers. As kerosene prices surged, some carriers added surcharges. Spanish airline Volotea, for example, introduced a clause allowing a surcharge of up to €14 per passenger, charged seven days before departure depending on kerosene price movements. Spanish consumer group Facua filed a complaint, calling the practice unlawful and insufficiently transparent, and warned others might follow suit.
Beyond higher fares, the greater threat is large-scale cancellations if jet fuel supplies falter — a problem already occurring in parts of Asia. To head off shortages, many airlines have begun cutting schedules as a precaution. Lufthansa recently canceled 20,000 flights planned for the coming months. Affected passengers face differing rights depending on where they fly from.
In the European Union, the Air Passenger Rights Regulation sets clear entitlements. When flights are canceled, passengers are generally entitled to compensation between €250 and €600 depending on distance, plus meals, hotel accommodation, and alternative transport. The regulation covers all flights departing from an EU airport, regardless of the airline’s base; flights arriving in the EU from outside are covered only when operated by an EU carrier.
However, passengers receive no compensation if the airline notifies them at least two weeks before departure. Observers expect airlines to give sufficient notice where possible, both to reduce payouts and to rely on the possibility that a jet fuel shortage might be treated as an “extraordinary circumstance.”
Under the regulation, airlines are exempt from compensation when cancellations result from extraordinary circumstances beyond their control — examples include strikes or natural disasters. Whether a jet fuel shortage would qualify depends on whether the airline did everything within its power to operate the flight as planned. That determination is case-specific and may be contested in court.
Outside the EU, protections vary. The United States has no uniform compensation framework; airlines set their own policies on delays and cancellations. The US Department of Transportation notes that in cancellations passengers are entitled to a refund of the ticket price, but meals, hotels and other assistance are discretionary and decided by each airline.
The US is expected to be less affected by a jet fuel crunch because it relies less on imports. For Europe, supplies that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly 30% of kerosene demand, according to the European Federation for Transport and Environment. That dependence has already raised average fuel-related costs per passenger by about €29 on intra-European flights and roughly €88 on intercontinental routes since the war began, contributing to higher ticket prices.