After postponing a March trip because of the conflict with Iran, US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of the week. The summit arrives amid multiple overlapping crises: an energy shock caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, stalled US‑Iran diplomacy, and lingering US‑China trade tensions.
Both capitals have a strong incentive to stage a successful encounter. Neither leader wants to appear weak, and both seek a face‑saving outcome. Beijing is careful to preserve ceremony around Xi, while Trump — struggling in the polls ahead of US midterms — needs a foreign‑policy win. Chu Yin, a political scientist at Beijing’s Pangoal think tank, argues Trump had hoped a quick military success against Iran would produce such leverage; when that strategy faltered, a trade or diplomatic concession from China became more important.
Negotiators from Beijing and Washington will try to lock down concrete steps in advance — including talks planned in Seoul — but expectations are mixed. The two sides remain divided on tariffs, market access and controls on critical technologies.
Human rights and high‑profile cases will also surface. Trump said he plans to press Xi on Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong media mogul and pro‑democracy figure sentenced under China’s national security law. Lai’s imprisonment has been a point of US criticism and a likely subject of private and public appeals.
Taiwan is another central, delicate topic. Beijing treats Taiwan as a breakaway province under its One‑China principle and regards any formal moves toward recognized independence as a red line. The United States, while officially “acknowledging” the One‑China policy established in the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, backs Taiwan’s self‑defense through the Taiwan Relations Act, which authorizes arms sales to help the island deter coercion.
Xi is expected to press Trump for explicit statements opposing Taiwanese independence — language that would have major diplomatic ramifications if a US president adopted it. At the same time, Washington has moved cautiously on arms deliveries: last December the Trump administration approved an $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, but deliveries have not advanced quickly, and a further $14 billion package awaits approval. Taiwan’s parliament recently authorized about $25 billion in defense purchases after domestic debate, a smaller figure than the $40 billion Taiwan’s president had sought.
Trump has indicated he will raise Taiwan and weapons issues with Xi, saying he has a good personal relationship with China’s leader and does not expect a China‑Taiwan conflict during his watch.
China could also be a useful intermediary over Iran. With US options limited and diplomacy stalled, Beijing’s influence with Tehran gives it leverage that Washington may want. Iranian officials have been in Beijing to seek support; China’s foreign minister has warned that the conflict undermines regional and global stability while reiterating China’s support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities and for safe passage through the Hormuz shipping lanes.
The strait’s disruption has removed roughly 20% of global oil supply from normal routes since March, prompting both Iranian and US naval moves and triggering US sanctions on entities accused of helping ship Iranian oil to China. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have urged Beijing to press Tehran to reopen the waterway.
Trade remains a core issue. A year of tariff measures, threats and countermeasures left the two economies in limbo. Trump insists China must buy more US goods to help rebalance trade, while Beijing says it will buy US products but also wants concrete concessions in return — notably relief from US export controls that restrict advanced semiconductors and other components critical to China’s AI ambitions.
Washington’s export controls on cutting‑edge AI chips are a key friction point. China has tried to build indigenous capacity but remains constrained by limits on access to US technologies. The last meeting between Trump and Xi produced promises to keep talking and to lower some tariffs, but no sweeping breakthroughs. Some analysts now expect a larger, politically weighty agreement this time — something that would touch both nations’ strategic interests.
Outcomes from the summit could shape short‑term and longer‑term geopolitics: progress might ease energy and trade pressures and reduce the risk of miscalculation over Taiwan or in the Persian Gulf; failure could harden rivalries and leave unresolved flashpoints. For both leaders, the meeting is both an opportunity and a test — to secure tangible gains at home while avoiding public humiliation on the world stage.
This piece was translated from German.