Less than two years after leading Labour to a decisive general election win that ended 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer is facing a serious political crisis. A string of poor results in recent local and devolved elections has damaged his popularity and intensified pressure from inside his party.
In local contests across England, Labour lost a large number of council seats, many of them to Reform UK, the right‑wing, anti‑immigration party. Labour also underperformed in devolved elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments held the same day. A YouGov poll this month found only 23% of Britons held a positive view of Starmer while 69% had an unfavorable opinion, and his standing among Labour MPs has fallen sharply.
Is Starmer still prime minister?
Yes. Starmer remains prime minister and, under normal circumstances, can stay in office until the next general election, which must be held by August 2029 at the latest. He has publicly ruled out resigning so far. There are only a few routes to remove a sitting prime minister mid‑term: losing a House of Commons vote of no confidence (requiring a simple majority) or being ousted by his own party.
A no‑confidence motion is unlikely because Labour holds a large parliamentary majority — about 403 of the 650 seats. The more realistic threat is an internal Labour leadership challenge. More than 90 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to go and several ministers have resigned, but Labour’s internal rules require support from 20% of Labour MPs — currently 81 MPs — to nominate a challenger and trigger a leadership contest.
Who might replace him?
Several figures have emerged as possible contenders. The leading name is Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester. Burnham is not an MP, but an MP in the Greater Manchester seat of Makerfield, Josh Simons, has stepped down to force a by‑election Burnham hopes to contest if the party selects him. If Burnham wins a Commons seat and the leadership election, he would become prime minister by convention.
Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary, is another potential challenger. He accused the leadership of lacking vision in his resignation letter. Streeting has not yet launched a formal bid; his recent cabinet role could be a political liability in the eyes of some voters.
Angela Rayner, Starmer’s former deputy, has also cleared a key hurdle: she was formally cleared by UK tax authorities of allegations connected to a property purchase that had forced her to step down from the deputy role in 2025. Rayner has said she will not initiate a contest but declined to back Starmer when asked, leaving open the possibility she could play a role.
How are UK prime ministers chosen?
The UK uses a parliamentary system: general elections decide MPs for 650 constituencies and the leader of the party that can command a majority in the Commons becomes prime minister. That leader can change between general elections if the party removes or replaces its leader, as happened during the last two decades with Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.
Could Nigel Farage become prime minister?
Reform UK, the party linked to Nigel Farage, has been the main beneficiary of Labour’s recent losses. Reform built on its 2024 showing — when it won a small number of seats but took around 14.3% of the national vote — and has added MPs through defections. Several high‑profile Conservatives, including former cabinet ministers, have switched to Reform, bringing its Commons presence to around eight MPs.
Reform’s platform emphasizes tougher immigration controls — including removing people it describes as “illegal migrants” and stopping small boat crossings — leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, repealing the Human Rights Act, cutting foreign aid and abandoning net zero climate targets. Those positions have resonated with a slice of the electorate.
Farage’s personal profile remains high. He unexpectedly returned to frontline UK politics in 2024, having previously led the Brexit Party and served as an MEP, and won his first Commons seat after a last‑minute decision to contest. He also spent time campaigning abroad, including supporting Donald Trump in the US, before that comeback.
Farage has come under scrutiny for a reported £5 million donation from British crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, who is based in Thailand. Farage has described the funds variously as for security and as a reward for his Brexit work; the parliamentary standards watchdog is investigating.
What happens next?
A general election is unlikely in the immediate term while Labour remains in government and the party is fractured. Instead the next decisive moments are likely to be internal: whether challengers can secure the 81 nominations needed to trigger a leadership contest, and the outcome of by‑elections such as the planned contest in Makerfield, expected later in 2026 if the timetable holds.
Makerfield is pivotal because it could give Burnham a parliamentary seat. The seat was previously a Labour stronghold — Labour polled 18,202 votes to Reform’s 12,803 there last time — but the dynamics that helped Reform elsewhere mean it will be contested. The Greens have also been expanding: they increased their national seats in 2024 from one to four, grew their council presence and now hold several councils and mayoralties. Under Zack Polanski’s leadership since 2025 the Greens have attracted younger voters and the left‑wing electorate, complicating Labour’s path back to unity.
If Burnham or another rival wins a leadership contest, they would become prime minister without a general election. If no challenger reaches the nomination threshold, Starmer is likely to limp on while making further cabinet changes to try to stabilise his government.
For now, Starmer remains in Downing Street, appointing new ministers and navigating a rocky political landscape while Reform and the Greens both press their gains. The next year of by‑elections, internal manoeuvring and public polling will determine whether his hold on power survives or collapses.