Federal forecasters say the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to produce slightly fewer named storms than the long-term average, but unusually warm ocean conditions raise the odds that at least one very large, destructive hurricane could form.
The official outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms between June 1 and November 30; the historical average is about 14. Of those, 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 could strengthen into major hurricanes capable of tearing off roofs, toppling trees and power poles, and destroying some mobile homes.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said Neil Jacobs, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Recent seasons have shown that a single storm can cause devastating, wide-ranging impacts.
Tens of millions of people live in areas vulnerable to hurricane winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall. Those threats extend well inland: flooding from heavy rain often causes the majority of fatalities and can devastate communities hundreds of miles from the coast. National Weather Service director Ken Graham warned, “The impacts don’t stop at the coast. The impacts go way inland. And we’ve seen that over and over and over again, including most of the fatalities end up being inland as well.” He added a common preparedness admonition: “After a storm is not the time to read how to use your chainsaw for the first time.”
Climate change and warm ocean temperatures are key reasons why a season with fewer storms can still be dangerous. The oceans have absorbed most of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and sea surface temperatures in the main hurricane development regions of the Atlantic — and closer to the U.S. coast — are running abnormally high. Warmer water fuels stronger storms, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, increasing the potential for extreme rainfall. Researchers estimate Hurricane Harvey dropped roughly 15% more rain than it would have without human-caused warming.
At this year’s forecast briefing, lead federal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans highlighted that the Gulf of Mexico remains unusually warm, as it was in the prior season. Those warmer waters help storms intensify before landfall.
A strong El Niño event is also expected to develop during the season. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by generating wind patterns that disrupt storm formation. But El Niño does not reduce activity in the Pacific; forecasters expect an above-average number of storms in the central and eastern Pacific this year.
Not every storm that forms makes landfall. In 2025 the contiguous U.S. avoided hurricane landfalls even as some of the most powerful storms on record churned across the Atlantic and Caribbean, including a Category 5 that struck Jamaica. Still, powerful but less intense storms can produce catastrophic inland flooding, as seen when remnants of storms like Helene and Ida caused deadly floods far from the coast.
Federal disaster response capacity has been a point of concern heading into the season. For the first time in years, FEMA did not have a visible presence at last year’s forecast announcement. This year, the agency returned: Robert Ashe, acting FEMA administrator for the Southeast region, attended and urged early preparation, including helping elderly neighbors and accounting for pets and medical devices that rely on electricity.
FEMA has also faced a turbulent year marked by job cuts, funding uncertainty and leadership gaps. The agency lost thousands of disaster-response positions and many experienced officials departed. In recent weeks the administration halted further cuts, nominated a former FEMA official to a leadership post, and released hundreds of millions of dollars in delayed disaster recovery and preparedness funding. Still, FEMA has not rehired all lost staff, and questions remain about how the prior upheaval will affect the agency’s readiness.
In response to inquiries, a FEMA spokesperson said the agency is “fully prepared for the 2026 hurricane season.” Local emergency agencies will be the first to respond when a storm strikes and typically have the most current information about shelters, evacuations and outages. In the days and weeks after landfall, the federal role becomes crucial for coordinating search and rescue, managing volunteers and debris removal, and providing survivors with emergency assistance.
Emergency managers advise residents in hurricane-prone areas to review evacuation plans now, include pets and critical medical equipment in those plans, learn local flood risks, and ensure safe use of generators and other recovery tools. Preparing in advance can make the difference when a single storm arrives.
Bottom line: even a below-average season can produce one catastrophic storm. With vulnerable populations across the coast and inland, unusually warm waters, and a climate that favors heavier rainfall and stronger storms, preparedness remains essential.