In a recent Foreign Affairs essay, Mark Leonard argues that the U.S.-led, rules-based international order is weakening — a theme he discussed with NPR host Danielle Kurtzleben from London. Leonard, cofounder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, traces what the postwar order looked like and why its decline matters.
He cites Henry Kissinger’s framework: stable world order rests on a set of rules that major powers will tolerate and a balance of power able to enforce them. For much of the last 80 years the West, with the United States at the center, created and underwrote that framework. But Leonard says recent developments have shifted the dynamics.
Leonard identifies the return of Donald Trump to the presidency as a major accelerant. He points to concrete actions — withdrawing from parts of the United Nations and the World Health Organization, challenging the World Trade Organization, and publicly questioning NATO commitments — that have undermined the predictability of U.S. leadership. He also highlights episodes that would once have been unimaginable as credible policy signals, such as public remarks about acquiring Greenland, as part of a broader pattern that shook long-standing assumptions.
Beyond individual political leaders, Leonard believes there is a deeper change in American politics and public sentiment. Many across the political spectrum now favor focusing on domestic priorities rather than resuming the role of global policeman. That shift means countries can no longer rely on steady U.S. stewardship indefinitely.
His advice to other governments is pragmatic: expect the unexpected and prepare accordingly. Instead of trying to preserve a fading predictable order, nations should diversify relationships, build flexible plans, and enhance resilience. Security, he argues, must be understood far more broadly than traditional military measures. Food supplies, public health systems, digital networks, and other everyday infrastructures can be weaponized or disrupted, so leaders should harden these systems and reduce fragility.
Leonard urges policymakers to think more creatively about deterrence and defense, to cultivate many partnerships rather than depending on a single guarantor, and to plan for contingencies rather than assume continuity. Adapting to a less American-centered world, he says, requires a change of mindset as much as new capabilities.
Leonard’s piece, titled “The Abandoned Order: Learning To Live In A Post-American World,” appears in Foreign Affairs. In the NPR conversation, he summarized these lessons and encouraged leaders to be more flexible, resilient, and prepared for an era of greater uncertainty.