Tino Chrupalla, co‑chair of the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD), repeatedly declared his party the evening’s winner after state election returns, and lead candidate Markus Frohnmaier described the result as very satisfying. With 18.8% of the vote, the AfD achieved its best showing so far in a western German state — a notable development in wealthy, industrial Baden‑Württemberg, home to firms such as Mercedes‑Benz, Porsche, SAP and Bosch and a traditionally strong middle class.
Classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence service as a suspected right‑wing extremist organization, the AfD campaigned on anti‑immigrant themes and promises of mass deportations. In the car‑making state the party attacked other parties over policies promoting alternative drivetrains, casting itself as a defender of the gasoline engine and expressing skepticism about largely human‑driven climate science.
Polling and post‑vote analysis show where the party’s gains came from. Infratest‑dimap found the AfD won about 37% of the worker vote, suggesting that structural economic change and anxieties about job security helped push some working‑class voters toward the party. Communications researcher Frank Brettschneider noted AfD supporters tend to view the present pessimistically, often agreeing with the notion that life was better in the past. Higher turnout also helped: pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen estimates the AfD picked up roughly 200,000 additional votes from people who might otherwise have stayed home.
Still, the party did not meet its own target of 25%, and internal strains and scandals have left leadership under pressure. Alice Weidel, one of the party’s most prominent figures, has faced criticism and appeared to struggle amid several controversies. Revelations that party parliamentarians hired friends and relatives in party offices — legal but politically damaging — have unsettled the grassroots and tarnished the AfD’s outsider image; Weidel has been largely defensive rather than confronting the issue.
The result highlights a broader tension in the AfD between radical long‑term goals — including reducing immigration and curbing the influence of Islam in Germany — and the compromises or internal professionalization that come with growing political influence. Some insiders and sympathetic media complained of a drift toward party apparatchiks after the vote.
Despite its gains, the AfD’s advance did not topple the Greens: the Greens remain the strongest party in the state and will continue to hold the premier’s office, leaving the AfD confined to opposition. This article was originally written in German.