When Friedrich Merz and his coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD took office on May 6, 2025, expectations were high that economic recovery and sweeping reforms would follow quickly. In his first policy statement the chancellor promised visible improvement within months and set out plans for major legislative changes in the autumn.
A year on, the government has struggled to make fast progress. Merz has acknowledged that a country like Germany cannot be steered onto a new course in just a few months. The centrist coalition has been riven by internal disagreements, and the need to broker compromises has repeatedly slowed decision-making. Economic momentum has failed to pick up as hoped, and public disappointment with the government’s record is widespread.
The latest ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll by infratest dimap underlines that frustration. In a representative survey of 1,303 eligible voters conducted between May 4 and May 6, 2026, 86% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the government — the worst one-year rating for any federal administration since the monthly series began in 1997. Only 44% think the government should serve until the scheduled 2029 election.
If new federal elections were held now, the ruling coalition would lose its majority. The poll shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at a nationwide record high of 27%, giving it a clear lead in projections. The CDU/CSU bloc has slipped two points to 24% and now ranks second. The SPD stands at 12%, the Left Party at 10% and the Greens have risen slightly to 15%. Both the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democrats (FDP) are polling below the 5% threshold for Bundestag entry.
Regional polling paints an even starker picture in the east: in Saxony-Anhalt, where a state election is due in September, the AfD is polling at about 41%, well ahead of the incumbent CDU at 26%.
Merz insists there is no viable alternative to the current coalition, but tough negotiations lie ahead. A draft healthcare reform was presented in April, and pension reform is slated for debate before the summer recess. By the end of the year the government aims to produce a comprehensive income tax overhaul intended to ease the burden on low- and middle-income earners. How to pay for those cuts is unresolved: the SPD is calling for higher taxes on the wealthy, a proposal the CDU/CSU rejects.
Key issues for voters remain the economy, social security and curbing irregular immigration — yet public confidence that the government can deliver on these fronts has fallen sharply. In June 2025 just over half of respondents trusted the new conservative-led administration to boost the economy; that figure is now only 25%.
Merz has argued that no chancellor has faced as many simultaneous international crises and security challenges as he has. But many voters reject that as an excuse for poor domestic performance: six in 10 describe the government’s actions as inadequate. The chancellor’s personal ratings are weak — only 16% say they are even somewhat satisfied with Merz, the lowest approval recorded for a chancellor in the poll’s history — and around four out of five respondents criticize his communication style.
Foreign and security policy developments have also been prominent. The German navy has readied two ships for potential Mediterranean deployment: the minesweeper Fulda sailed from Kiel and the supply ship Mosel, currently operating in the Aegean, is being prepared for rapid assignment. If an international mission is formed to secure the Strait of Hormuz in the event of renewed hostilities, these vessels could be made available. The Deutschlandtrend finds about half of Germans back participation in such a mission.
Relations with US President Donald Trump initially seemed cordial, but differences have recently emerged. Voters across the spectrum generally back Merz in standing firm on German positions even if this risks friction with Trump: just one in five favors a more cautious approach designed to avoid provoking the US president.
Translated from German.