As global attention centers on the war involving Iran, Israel and the United States, a separate and intensifying clash between Afghanistan and Pakistan threatens to reshape regional dynamics.
Taliban officials in Kabul accused Pakistan of carrying out an airstrike late Monday on a large drug-treatment hospital, saying at least 400 people were killed and hundreds more wounded. Afghan authorities said the strike struck the 2,000-bed rehabilitation facility at about 9 p.m., causing extensive damage. Pakistan denied targeting civilian infrastructure, with information minister Attaullah Tarar saying its forces conducted “precision airstrikes” against “military installations and terrorist support infrastructure.”
Both sides have exchanged blame. Islamabad says it is responding to attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Pakistani officials allege operate from Afghan soil; the Taliban deny harboring them. In recent days Pakistan’s strikes have reportedly extended beyond suspected TTP locations to Afghan military sites.
On March 1, Pakistan was reported to have struck Bagram, the former U.S. Air Force base north of Kabul. Satellite imagery and other reports suggested a hangar and two warehouses were destroyed, though the Taliban said the attack was repelled and the base suffered no damage. Bagram, the hub of U.S. operations in Afghanistan until 2021, is seen by some as strategically important because of its proximity to China; Washington has reportedly explored a possible return, which the Taliban have rejected.
The Pakistan action at Bagram coincided with the second day of coordinated U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, underscoring how multiple regional crises can unfold at once even without direct links.
The Pakistan-Taliban relationship has long been complicated. Pakistan was among the few states to recognize the Taliban during their 1996–2001 rule, and observers have documented financial, logistical and security contacts between elements of Pakistan’s military-intelligence apparatus and Taliban actors. After the Taliban returned to power in 2021, ties with Islamabad initially appeared close: Pakistani security officials visited Kabul and Islamabad worked to limit Afghanistan’s international isolation. In recent months, however, relations have frayed. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of failing to act decisively against the TTP; the Taliban deny supporting Pakistani insurgents but have resisted large-scale operations against them.
Islamabad frames the TTP threat as “existential.” Analysts such as Pakistan-based international-relations expert Huma Baqai have defended strikes as necessary from a security perspective and suggested Pakistan likely has Washington’s tacit approval, even absent direct U.S. military involvement.
Bagram’s geopolitical significance heightens sensitivity: a renewed U.S. presence there would bring U.S. forces closer to Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China. Iran’s de-facto ambassador to Afghanistan publicly thanked the Taliban for refusing to allow a U.S. return to Bagram, saying a U.S. presence could have drawn Afghanistan into conflict with Tehran. While Iran does not formally recognize the Taliban, it has said official recognition is “on the table.”
Analysts say Pakistan’s timing appears opportunistic. Afghan researcher Sardar Rahimi argued that the Iran conflict creates a strategic opening for Islamabad, which is economically and militarily strained in its fight with Taliban-linked forces and arguably cannot sustain a prolonged campaign without tacit U.S. support or international guarantees. Former Afghan ambassador Sultan Ahmad Baheen suggested motives that include exploiting the Iran distraction, degrading the TTP, and diverting attention from Pakistan’s domestic political and economic problems. Media reports that former U.S. facilities and stockpiled American weapons may have been targeted have fueled speculation Islamabad sought a “green light” from Washington.
Longer term, Baheen said, Islamabad appears to prefer an Afghanistan that is politically dependent or unstable rather than fully independent of Pakistani influence—aiming less to topple the Taliban than to constrain Kabul’s ability to resist Pakistani interests.
The overlapping crises complicate the regional balance: Pakistan’s strikes, Taliban responses, TTP cross-border attacks and the broader Iran confrontation create multiple fault lines that could interact unpredictably. With global attention focused on Iran, the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict risks escalating further, carrying serious humanitarian and strategic consequences.
Additional reporting by Haroon Janjua; edited by Wesley Rahn.