A two‑week ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the United States has paused a 40‑day cycle of intense strikes and reprisals. Civilians across Iran, Israel and the wider region have suffered most: thousands killed or injured, mass displacement, and widespread damage to homes, infrastructure and livelihoods. Even with the truce with Tehran, Israel has maintained heavy bombardment of Hezbollah in Lebanon, carrying out some of the fiercest strikes since that front escalated.
No side truly “won,” but the fighting has already reshaped alliances, energy markets and geopolitical influence beyond the Middle East.
Iran: under pressure, but resilient
US and Israeli operations since late February hit Iranian military and energy sites. Rights groups report many casualties, including senior officials and children. Despite heavy losses, analysts see no immediate sign of an imminent regime collapse: Iran’s core political structures remain intact. Tehran’s risky decision to constrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil shipments — pushed up prices and increased pressure on Washington and its partners. That leverage helped secure a ceasefire without clear Iranian concessions and allowed Tehran to present the outcome as having survived overwhelming force. The White House’s acceptance of Iran’s 10‑point proposal as a discussion basis gave Tehran breathing room to shape the next phase on more favorable terms.
United States: military impact, political limits
Washington and its partners say they degraded portions of Iran’s conventional military, naval and ballistic capabilities and damaged elements tied to its nuclear program — tangible military outcomes the US sought. But US forces also incurred losses: radars and aircraft were damaged or destroyed, and Iran’s strikes on American bases and regional infrastructure dented Washington’s image as the Gulf’s guarantor. US operations conducted without full allied consultation strained ties with European governments and NATO. The ceasefire lowers immediate risks to US personnel and eases oil‑market stress as the Hormuz route is expected to reopen, yet the campaign fell short of producing decisive political change in Tehran, leaving Washington to return to diplomacy with limited leverage.
Israel: tactical successes, strategic exposure
Israel substantially damaged parts of Iran’s military apparatus and showcased long‑range strike ability while retaining strong US support. At the same time, repeated missile barrages tested Israel’s air defenses and caused civilian casualties, highlighting vulnerabilities. Analysts warn that the campaign has diplomatic costs in Israel’s neighborhood, making deeper ties with some Gulf states less likely in the near term.
China: long‑term beneficiary
A US shift of military focus to the Middle East eases pressure on Beijing in the Indo‑Pacific. China framed calls for restraint and praise for the ceasefire as a responsible, stabilizing role, protecting trade and energy links. China imports the bulk of Iran’s oil — often at discounts — and its large strategic reserves and ongoing purchases help buffer price shocks, giving Beijing economic and strategic advantages from the disruption.
Russia: short‑term gains, mixed strategic picture
Rising energy prices during the fighting boosted Russian revenues at a moment its budget is strained by the war in Ukraine. Temporary shifts in global supply offered Moscow relief from some sanctions pressure, and Western attention diverted from Ukraine reduced immediate diplomatic pressure. But a weakened Iran is also a loss for Moscow, which valued Tehran as a regional partner.
Gulf states: uneven outcomes
Iranian strikes damaged facilities and shattered a sense of security across the Gulf. Some states, notably Saudi Arabia, preserved oil exports by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and benefited from higher prices, improving fiscal positions. Others, especially the UAE, suffered reputational damage: dependence on foreign workers, investors and tourism makes perceived insecurity economically costly.
Europe: economic pain and alliance strains
Higher energy costs hit households and industry while shipping disruptions and inflation compounded pressure. The hostilities exposed rifts within traditional alliances: many European governments declined to support US offensive missions or to provide airspace, deepening transatlantic strains and fueling concern about the reliability of security commitments.
Pakistan: diplomatic boost
Pakistan emerged as a diplomatic broker, helping secure the ceasefire and set to host follow‑up talks. Leveraging relationships with both Washington and Tehran, Islamabad quietly shuttled messages and gained standing as a regional mediator — a diplomatic win for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif — while India largely kept to the sidelines and contended with rising energy costs.
Edited by: Hannah Cleaver, Carla Bleiker