The conflict in Iran is disrupting global aviation, creating shortages of jet fuel and driving up prices. Carriers are responding with route cancellations and higher fares as supplies tighten. On April 21, Lufthansa announced it would scrap 20,000 flights between May and October to conserve fuel — cutting roughly 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel. Dutch airline KLM canceled 160 flights for the coming month. Other European and Asia-Pacific carriers are adding fuel surcharges, raising fares or preparing further suspensions ahead of the summer travel season.
Energy and aviation authorities warn that available supplies could shrink rapidly. International Energy Agency director Fatih Birol said Europe could have as little as six weeks of jet fuel left. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has cautioned the situation appears to be moving from high prices toward an actual supply shortage. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas flows worldwide; a significant share of the kerosene used to make jet fuel for Europe passes through that corridor.
There is disagreement about how close Europe is to running out. The Dutch government has said the EU has at least five months’ worth of kerosene for aviation and other uses. The EU is estimated to produce 60–70% of its jet fuel domestically and import the remaining 30–40%, about half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz. The Netherlands — home to major refineries that import crude and produce aviation fuel — is a key node in that supply chain.
Transport economists and industry analysts offer differing views on what comes next. Rico Luman of ING considers the IEA’s six-week warning plausible and says contingency measures, such as coordinated fuel sharing between hubs and member states, may be necessary. John Grant of aviation data firm OAG says the picture is less dire in the short term, noting many canceled flights are on routes with frequent alternatives. Nonetheless, airlines and governments are discussing emergency steps. EU transport ministers met to coordinate guidance, and the European Commission prepared a package of energy and transport measures, including collective management of jet fuel stocks and possible redistribution of existing supplies. Officials have also explored easing purchases from the United States to bolster European reserves.
Longer-term alternatives to conventional kerosene are limited. The aviation sector remains heavily dependent on fossil-derived jet fuel. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are promoted as a decarbonization option — made from biomass, waste or other feedstocks — but current production is very small and costs are much higher than conventional jet fuel. Under the EU’s ReFuelEU regulation, SAF blending mandates rise gradually: 2% from January 2026, 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. Experts say it is unrealistic to scale SAF production quickly enough to substitute for conventional jet fuel in an acute supply crisis.
Higher fuel prices are likely to persist even if physical supplies do not fully run out, meaning elevated ticket prices for passengers. Many airlines use hedging strategies to lock in fuel costs, but some reduced their hedging in recent years and are thus more exposed to spot-price spikes. Analysts expect more route suspensions, temporary fuel levies and fare increases if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. In Asia, where jet fuel costs are already high, carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Air New Zealand and AirAsia X have trimmed services to conserve fuel; as supplies tighten, traders tend to sell to the highest bidder.
Industry observers say the crisis underscores aviation’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. In the near term, reducing flights and conserving fuel appears the most realistic response if disruptions persist. “It just shows how fragile this industry really is,” says Yi Gao of Purdue University, noting the sector relies on stable fuel availability, consistent airspace access and affordable energy.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru