Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles during the Thanksgiving travel period (Nov. 25–Dec. 1), an increase of about 1.6 million travelers from last year, according to AAA. The vast majority plan to drive: AAA estimates roughly 73.2 million people will travel by car, a 1.8% rise from last year. About 6 million domestic air travelers are projected, up roughly 2%, though ongoing concerns about flight disruptions could push some people to choose buses, trains or driving instead.
Travel by bus, train and cruise is also forecast to grow, with AAA predicting an 8.5% increase and a likely surge in last-minute bookings. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel.
Air travel outlook and recent disruptions
The Federal Aviation Administration lifted an emergency directive that temporarily reduced flights after staffing issues tied to a recent government shutdown caused mass disruptions. Aviation experts say it may take time for operations to fully normalize, but industry leaders are optimistic airlines will be back to pre-shutdown levels in time for the holiday. The FAA expects the upcoming Thanksgiving period to be the busiest for air travel in 15 years, with Tuesday projected to be the single busiest flying day. Weather that brackets the holiday could still cause delays.
Best times to drive
Traffic analytics firm INRIX says the worst congestion in major metro areas will hit Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. To avoid the heaviest backups, aim to be on the road before noon on Tuesday and by 11 a.m. on Wednesday. Thanksgiving Day itself tends to have lighter road traffic.
For return trips, it’s generally best to start driving before noon on any day except Monday. The Sunday after Thanksgiving is likely to be congested much of the day; if you must travel Monday, after 8 p.m. is usually the least congested option.
Weather to watch
The National Weather Service forecasts a swath of rain from southern Texas up toward Minnesota moving east across the country during the peak pre-holiday travel window (Monday through Wednesday). Forecasters warn Monday into Tuesday may be problematic across parts of Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.
By Thanksgiving Day conditions should be drier across much of the U.S., but mornings will be colder than average in many areas, with central regions seeing temperatures in the teens. Black Friday is expected to bring warmer-than-average temperatures from the Great Plains to the West Coast, with places like Denver reaching the mid-50s.
Lake-effect snow showers are possible around the Great Lakes, affecting parts of the central and eastern U.S. For travelers returning Friday and Saturday, much of the country should see decent weather, but another storm system is expected to develop over the weekend. That system could produce heavy snow across western Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota and parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, rain chances increase from Texas north into Missouri and Illinois.
Practical tips
– If you can, leave early in the day on Tuesday or by late morning Wednesday to avoid peak congestion.
– Expect lighter driving conditions on Thanksgiving Day itself.
– Check flight status frequently and be prepared to shift plans if delays persist.
– Watch forecasts for lake-effect snow near the Great Lakes and the weekend storm that could affect late returns.
– Consider alternative modes if last-minute flight cancellations make air travel unreliable.
Planning departures and returns around these timing and weather factors can reduce travel stress and increase the chance of a smoother trip.