A moratorium that has helped protect vital rainforest since 2009 is under threat after major players in Brazil’s soy industry said they would withdraw. The industry association ABIOVE, whose members include global traders such as Cofco International, Bunge, Amaggi and JBS, announced it would no longer pledge to avoid sourcing soy from newly deforested land. Environmental groups warn this move could spur renewed Amazon logging.
Brazilian environmental organizations monitoring the moratorium said the decision amounts to “abandoning clear and transparent rules for short-term financial gain — reopening the door to forest destruction.” A preliminary study by the Brazilian Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) estimates ending the moratorium could raise Amazon deforestation by up to 30% by 2045.
ABIOVE told DW it will continue to follow the Brazilian Forest Code as an ecological and social standard and framed the withdrawal as a way to secure long-term exports of Brazilian soy and soy by-products.
The voluntary moratorium, introduced in 2006 under pressure from environmental groups and international buyers and enforced from around 2009, had been seen as an effective barrier to soy-driven deforestation. Major soy traders agreed not to buy soy grown on land cleared in the Amazon. IPAM reports that deforestation rates in monitored areas fell by about 70% under the agreement. Nevertheless, soy-driven forest clearing overall grew: since 2008, soy-growing area in the Brazilian Amazon expanded by roughly 7.28 million hectares. According to WWF, about 80% of global soy production is used for animal feed.
Market analysts warn the moratorium’s end will make it easier to open new land. Eduardo Vanin of Marex expects soy acreage in the Amazon state of Mato Grosso to grow by around 150,000 hectares, saying the change lowers barriers to clearing forest, even if it does not immediately trigger a dramatic spike in deforestation.
Brazil’s rise in the global soy market helps explain the stakes. With about 40% of world production, Brazil is the largest soy producer; the US is second. China, the biggest buyer, now sources roughly 70% of its soy from Brazil versus about 21% from the US. Chinese buyers began shifting away from US supplies after drought-hit US harvests in 2012, and the trend accelerated during the 2018 US–China trade conflict and again in 2025. Experts expect the US to keep losing market share. Analysts cite Brazil’s greater availability of arable land, lower per-hectare costs, favorable weather and growing technical expertise as drivers of its expansion. Observers note that dropping the moratorium could deepen Brazil’s dependence on China.
Europe is a major market for Brazilian soy and has mixed signals on forest protection. The EU postponed a regulation aimed at banning imports linked to deforestation and also weakened its corporate sustainability due diligence directive, reducing policy pressure on exporters. Still, European standards remain stringent enough to disadvantage suppliers unable to prove their products are deforestation-free. In response to ABIOVE’s announcement, 14 major European buyers, including supermarket chains Lidl and Aldi, said they would stop purchasing soy unless supply chains remain fully traceable.
The moratorium had been credited with helping slow soy-related clearing in monitored areas and protecting biodiversity and the Amazon’s role as a carbon sink. Critics say abandoning those voluntary restrictions risks reversing those gains at a time when forest protection is crucial for climate regulation and biodiversity conservation.
