A campaign staffer told NPR that when an unreleased outside poll showed their candidate well ahead in a tight race, they and others used the tip to place bets on prediction markets before the poll was public. The staffer, who worked on a statewide Southern campaign and spoke on condition of anonymity fearing job consequences, said the poll didn’t match the campaign’s internal numbers but it moved market prices — and “sure enough as soon as that poll came out, the stock went up and everybody made money.”
NPR verified the staffer’s wager using prediction market data. These markets are financial exchanges where people bet on future events — including elections — and trade billions of dollars each week. The staffer said the most they’d made was “thousands,” and that placing bets on their candidate when they had nonpublic information was common on that campaign and others.
The staffer described the tactic: when tipped about an unreleased poll, they compared it to odds on sites like PredictIt or Polymarket. If the poll suggested a better chance than the market priced in, they bought low-cost event contracts betting their candidate would win. Prediction market prices often reflect the market’s estimated probability (e.g., a contract at $0.20 implies a 20% chance). Once the poll was published and market prices rose, the staffer sold the contracts for a profit.
Jeff Le Riche, a former Commodity Futures Trading Commission trial lawyer who focused on insider trading and market manipulation, said such bets “could potentially be a violation” and invite a CFTC investigation. The CFTC regulates many prediction markets and permits some election betting. Le Riche said betting on material nonpublic information when you owe a duty not to use it could violate the Commodity Exchange Act. He noted key documents for any probe would include the staffer’s employment agreement and the prediction market’s user agreement; breaches could prompt investigation or prosecution.
Le Riche warned that the early lack of enforcement creates an “illusion of safety.” Another anonymous campaign staffer who worked on East Coast statewide races told NPR they witnessed colleagues placing bets because their polling suggested the markets were mispriced. “They were like, ‘I’m going to go make a quick $5,000,'” that staffer recalled. They said others felt free to place bets when rules were sparse, especially in the early 2020s when fewer participants made markets easier to beat.
Former CFTC commissioner Kristin Johnson questioned the commission’s readiness to police election-related insider trading, saying the agency lacks experience trying such cases and that courts have not clearly settled whether insider-trading laws apply in this context. She also raised concerns about the CFTC enforcement division’s staffing and ability to fulfill its mandate. Johnson urged Congress to give the CFTC clearer direction on political event contracts.
Recent actions signal growing attention. The White House warned staff against using prediction markets; the Senate unanimously voted to bar senators and their staff from trading on these markets. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) called that a “good first step” and urged broader prohibitions on federal officials and employees using insider information to bet. Those measures, however, would not bar campaign staffers from placing election bets. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) banned prediction markets in his House office and campaign; his campaign manager said they added the ban to the employee handbook after a staff meeting.
Election betting has been legal in various forms for years. The CFTC allowed a limited number of election wagers in 2014 via PredictIt, a nonprofit research platform. For-profit firms like Kalshi have since expanded and popularized election betting, hosting billions in legal political wagers. Polymarket also runs election markets but largely operates offshore and outside U.S. regulation. Bipartisan bills have been introduced to limit or ban political and war betting by insiders, but none have passed.
Reports of suspected insider trades continue. In recent weeks, Kalshi banned and fined several political candidates for betting on themselves. The company also suspended and fined users in April after an internal probe found candidates had bet on their own races. Kalshi earlier said it had taken enforcement actions in other insider trading cases, including against a high-profile YouTuber’s editor and a California gubernatorial candidate who publicly said he’d bet on himself.
NPR has analyzed other notable prediction market trades: a Polymarket trader who earned roughly $300,000 by betting on President Biden’s last-minute pardons, and a March trade of $553,000 on Polymarket concerning Iran and its Supreme Leader shortly before an Israeli strike. Those episodes further highlight concerns about timing and access to sensitive information.
The CFTC has taken steps to clarify its stance. In February it issued guidance asserting the agency’s authority over prediction markets and admonishing platforms to list only contracts “not readily susceptible to manipulation.” At a House Agriculture Committee hearing in April, committee members questioned Michael Selig, the commission’s sole board member, about his role in clearing regulatory paths for prediction markets and his defense of the industry against state lawsuits. Selig has defended the nascent industry and is leading suits against states challenging it.
Kalshi’s recent enforcement moves underscore platforms’ growing scrutiny of insider betting. Still, regulators and lawmakers have yet to create comprehensive rules covering campaign staffers. The Senate and some offices have tightened rules for elected officials and their staffs, but campaign employees remain in a legal gray area.
As for the Southern campaign staffer who profited, they said they sold after the poll was released, then reinvested the winnings when internal polling strengthened their confidence. “I basically took the money that I won and just reinvested it to win more money,” they said.
Want to share more about prediction markets and campaigns? You can reach Luke Garrett via encrypted Signal chat at lukegarrett.60