Last week Thailand’s parliament endorsed Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister after his conservative Bhumjaithai party won a decisive victory in February’s general election, making him the first Thai premier to be voted back into office in two decades.
His coalition, which includes the populist Pheu Thai party, now controls 292 seats in the new parliament. Most pollsters had expected a much tighter race with the progressive People’s Party, successor to Move Forward, which finished first in the 2023 election. The result was widely read as a vote for stability over change and nationalism over reform, after Anutin made the ongoing border conflict with Cambodia the defining campaign issue.
Aim Sinpeng, associate professor at the University of Sydney, said Anutin’s re-election signals continuity rather than a conservative backlash. “Voting Bhumjaithai means no major changes expected at a time where polls have shown the majority of Thais worry the most about economic insecurities and precarity,” she said.
Economic headwinds
Thailand faces several structural economic challenges. High household debt, weak domestic demand, a strong baht, trade uncertainty and pressure on exports have dampened growth. Official and private forecasts put 2026 growth at around 1.6–2%, making Thailand one of the weaker performers in Southeast Asia; neighbours such as Vietnam are growing faster, and Malaysia ranks higher on global competitiveness measures.
Bhumjaithai’s platform promises to tackle the malaise with consumer subsidies, cheap credit, business-friendly technocrats and a push for a “green economy.” Campaign pledges included support for community solar projects and measures to lower household electricity bills. Critics, however, say those steps are insufficient.
“The government’s green economy policies tend to focus narrowly on the promotion of renewable energy projects and carbon credits,” said Prapimphan Chiengkul, associate professor at Thammasat University. “A truly green transition in Thailand will require much more fundamental and structural changes in all sectors, such as sustainable agriculture, as well as investments in adaptation projects.”
Geopolitical and external risks
Geopolitics complicate the economic outlook. Thailand is still dealing with the fallout from last year’s border war with Cambodia — the worst clashes in more than a decade — which killed at least 149 people and displaced hundreds of thousands before a second ceasefire was agreed in late December. Phnom Penh has pushed for resolution at the International Court of Justice, while Bangkok rejects the court’s jurisdiction and prefers bilateral talks.
More immediately, regional and global tensions — including spillover from the US-Israel conflict with Iran — have pushed up fuel prices. Thailand is almost entirely dependent on imported oil and gas, so surging energy costs threaten inflation and living standards. Mark Cogan, associate professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Kansai Gaidai University, warned that in the short term there is “zero chance” of Anutin delivering economic success because the geopolitical landscape is shifting. He also criticized government rhetoric urging citizens to become self-sufficient by growing vegetables and raising chickens as a makeshift response to economic pressures.
A rare continuity — for now
Thailand’s modern political history has repeatedly alternated between elected governments and interventions by the military, judiciary or other forces. Since 1932 the country has seen coups, mass protests and court rulings that have toppled leaders; in the past two decades five prime ministers have been removed by such processes.
Anutin’s political strength lies in tactical flexibility. A former construction tycoon and son of a former cabinet minister, he has held multiple senior roles — deputy prime minister, health minister, interior minister and COVID-19 tsar — and was widely regarded as a broker able to navigate Thailand’s competing power centers without alienating the military, courts or conservative royalist establishment. He gained prominence for championing the decriminalization of cannabis in 2022.
Anutin first became prime minister in September 2025 after Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra was dismissed for violating ethical rules over her handling of the Cambodia dispute, which included a leaked phone call with former Cambodian strongman Hun Sen. Anutin dissolved parliament to seek a stronger mandate, and his gamble paid off: campaigning amid patriotic sentiment stirred by the border fighting, he presented himself as the candidate of order and stability.
The result also underscored the waning influence of the Shinawatra family, which had dominated Thai politics for much of the past 25 years. After the 2006 military coup ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, his sister Yingluck later became prime minister and was removed in 2014; Paetongtarn’s removal last year continued the family’s decline.
Fragile stability
Political risks persist. On March 18 the constitutional court accepted a petition challenging the use of barcodes and QR codes on ballots, arguing they may violate the constitutional requirement for secret voting. The election commission has 15 days to respond; the court could, in theory, void February’s election and order a fresh ballot. While that outcome is considered unlikely, the petition is a reminder that Thailand’s political stability remains fragile.
Anutin’s government now faces the immediate task of calming economic anxieties and addressing inflation, energy costs and weak growth, while navigating border tensions and external shocks. Whether his blend of short-term stimulus, technocratic governance and green rhetoric will be enough to revive growth — or whether deeper structural reforms will be required — remains the central question of his second term.
Edited by: Wesley Rahn