When Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan stepped out of a car and walked toward Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in June 2025, the image was striking: the two leaders shook hands and posed for cameras, marking the first visit by an Armenian government representative to Turkey at the invitation of the Turkish head of state. For a border that stretches roughly 330 kilometers, the moment symbolized a possible thaw in relations long frozen by history and conflict.
A century-old rift
Hostility between Turkey and Armenia reaches back more than a century, shaped in part by the 1915 massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire — an episode many Western countries recognized as genocide in 2016. Tensions were compounded during the Nagorno-Karabakh wars: Turkey sided with Azerbaijan and closed the Turkey–Armenia border in 1993. That closure has left the two countries economically and socially isolated from one another for decades.
A cautious rapprochement
Since 2022 a gradual opening has been underway. Armenia has stopped making formal recognition of the 1915 events a precondition for rapprochement with Ankara, and a 2024 peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan brought an end to extended conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Those developments have encouraged Turkish businesses and local officials to hope the border — shut for more than thirty years — could reopen.
There are two crossings on the Turkey–Armenia frontier: Alican in Igdir Province and Akyaka in Kars Province. Both have been closed since the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. Observers say the crossings could be reopened within months: Armenian sources report preparations are complete on their side, while Turkish work is advanced but still ongoing. If the crossings opened before Armenia’s parliamentary elections in June, it would represent a significant political victory for Pashinyan, who has championed reconciliation and a westward orientation for Armenia.
Trade via Georgia and the promise of much more
Because the land border has been sealed, trade has flowed indirectly through Georgia for years. Kaan Soyak, head of the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council, estimates roughly $300–350 million worth of goods moves between the two countries via Georgia, nearly all of it transported from Turkey through Georgia to Armenia. Major items include clothing, chemicals, foodstuffs, and raw precious metals.
Soyak and other business leaders believe bilateral trade could quickly rise toward $1 billion if the border reopens. They expect rapid investment in logistics corridors, plus energy and telecommunications connections across the South Caucasus. Those projects could transform regional commerce — provided security concerns do not derail progress.
Security headwinds: the Iran war
Plans have been complicated by the Iran war. Its spread into neighboring theaters — including the Gulf, Iraq, and Lebanon — has raised fears of instability and migration, slowing momentum to open the land border and build cross-border infrastructure.
Anatolia’s eastern provinces hope for a boost
Eastern Turkish provinces nearest the border — Kars, Igdir, Agri, Ardahan, and Van — are among the poorest in Turkey by GDP per capita. Local leaders see reopening as a chance to reverse economic decline by encouraging movement of goods, people, and tourists, including members of the Armenian diaspora.
Historical and religious sites on the Turkish side, notably the medieval Armenian city of Ani in Kars, could attract visitors if crossings reopen. Kadir Bozan of the Kars Chamber of Commerce and Industry highlights the strategic value of the so-called Trump Corridor. As part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace framework, that corridor would create a roughly 43-kilometer road and rail link through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and then to Turkey. Work on a 224-kilometer rail segment tied to that route began last August, with planners expecting it to carry millions of passengers and large volumes of freight annually.
A broader transport vision
The corridor is also intended to strengthen the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, shortening travel times between China and Europe. Turkey sees an opportunity to become a major node on that east–west axis; local officials hope that, once insecurity abates, the entire region can grow as a trade and tourism hub. Kars already runs a popular train connection to Baku via Tbilisi, demonstrating existing regional links.
Local optimism and tangible expectations
In Ardahan, which borders Georgia and lies about 20 kilometers from Armenia, business leaders foresee new factories, warehouses, and production zones that could create jobs and reverse population decline. Cetin Demirci, head of the Ardahan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, expects industrial investment if borders and corridors open.
Igdir’s chamber head Kamil Arslan expresses similar confidence, saying trade transcends nationalism and that people want an end to more than three decades of enmity. He expects foodstuffs, building materials, textiles, and services to flow again, and hopes Igdir’s famed sweet apricots will return to old trading routes.
What happens next
Reopening the border would carry symbolic, political, and economic implications: a diplomatic win for Armenian leadership, a boon for Turkey’s struggling eastern provinces, and a step toward deeper regional integration linking the South Caucasus to global trade corridors. Yet success depends on completing infrastructure, resolving remaining political and security doubts, and ensuring stability in a volatile neighborhood.
This article has been translated from German.