Brazil knows how to stage global spectacles — from the World Cup and Olympics to massive concerts on Copacabana. Next up is climate diplomacy’s most important annual event: the UN climate summit, COP30. Thirty years after the first conference in Berlin, thousands of delegates will convene in the Amazonian city of Belém for two weeks of talks aimed at tackling a climate crisis already reshaping the planet.
Last year was the hottest on record, driving deadly floods in Pakistan, wildfires across Europe and heat waves that scorched Brazil and much of the world. COP30 president André Correa do Lago has warned the summit will take place in a world at the “epicenter of the climate crisis.” But Brazil’s own policies contain contradictions that expose tensions between protecting the Amazon and developing its economy.
Why Belém?
Belém’s selection as host has provoked controversy. Hotel shortages and price hikes have raised concerns about affordability for delegates and visitors. Symbolically, however, Belém — the “gateway” to the Amazon — is a powerful setting. The rainforest stores billions of tons of carbon and helps regulate global climate, but scientists warn it may be nearing a tipping point where rising temperatures and deforestation could trigger large-scale dieback.
The local impacts of climate change are visible: longer fire seasons, more frequent droughts and more intense blazes. The location allows Brazil to highlight efforts to curb deforestation, historically its largest emissions source. Since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to the presidency in 2022, Brazil has reversed much of the deforestation surge seen under Jair Bolsonaro; the government pledged to end deforestation by 2030 and recorded a roughly 30% fall in rates last year.
Still, the progress is fragile. Brazil suffered around 200,000 wildfires last year, burning an area larger than Belgium and releasing greenhouse gases equivalent to Germany’s annual emissions. A decision to clear part of the forest to build a large highway to Belém — justified as easing traffic during COP30 — drew criticism. Critics say such infrastructure and other developments risk further forest loss and harm to traditional communities.
What is Brazil doing on climate?
Brazil contributes about 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions and has pledged to cut emissions 59–67% by 2035 against 2005 levels. It is a renewables powerhouse: nearly 90% of its electricity comes from clean sources such as hydropower, wind and solar. At the same time, however, Brazil plans to expand fossil fuel production and aims to become one of the world’s top oil producers. President Lula approved new drilling at the mouth of the Amazon, drawing sharp criticism from environmentalists.
At COP28 in Dubai, Brazil joined other nations in agreeing to move away from fossil fuels, but Brazilian officials argue wealthy countries should lead decarbonization given their historical emissions and economic benefits from fossil fuel use. Correa do Lago has said income from exporting hydrocarbons could fund Brazil’s transition away from fossil fuels. Nonetheless, critics see a contradiction in a COP host expanding oil output — a charge previously leveled at other fossil-fuel-producing hosts.
Domestically, environmental protection faces political headwinds. A controversial draft law — labeled the “devastation bill” by activists and backed by a powerful agribusiness bloc — seeks to loosen environmental licensing for new infrastructure and fast-track projects deemed “strategic,” such as highways and hydroelectric dams. Although Lula vetoed many damaging provisions, a fast-tracking clause remains, and campaigners warn it could enable more deforestation and dispossession.
Indigenous groups and environmental campaigners have protested ahead of COP30, decrying new oil projects and demanding stronger protections for forests and communities.
What can COP30 achieve under Brazil’s presidency?
COP30 marks a decade since nearly 200 nations signed the Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to cap it at 1.5°C. Global temperatures are already about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are at record highs. Nations face pressure to increase ambition and deepen emissions cuts, building on COP28’s momentum toward transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Some observers believe Brazil can still play a constructive role. Claudio Angelo of the Climate Observatory notes that major steps on fossil-fuel transitions can happen even when hosted by countries with significant oil interests — pointing to recognition of a transition beginning in COP discussions held in petro-states. Brazil’s presidency will also officially launch the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a global fund that pays countries based on how well they protect forests. Tropical forests store half of the carbon held in trees worldwide; Lula has pledged $1 billion to the initiative.
Ultimately, success in Belém will depend on whether countries — including the host — can reconcile competing priorities and overcome contradictions in policy and practice. “What we will need to do is to overcome our contradictions,” Environment Minister Marina Silva told DW, noting such contradictions exist in Brazil and across many countries.
Additional reporting by Vanessa Fischer and Louise Osborne.
Edited by Jennifer Collins.
