Rhineland‑Palatinate, in southwestern Germany, hosts the largest US air base outside the United States at Ramstein, is the ancestral home of US President Donald Trump, and boasts the world’s tallest cold‑water geyser and a major wine industry — nearly three‑quarters of German wine comes from the Rhine, Moselle, Nahe and Ahr regions. Mainz, the state capital, even houses Germany’s only ministry explicitly for viticulture, a portfolio held by the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) in a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. Since 2016 this “traffic‑light” coalition (red, yellow, green) has been the last of its kind in Germany.
The SPD has governed the state for 35 years, a region also known as the homeland of former chancellor Helmut Kohl of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The March 22 state election is shaping up as pivotal. A final pre‑election survey by infratest dimap, published 10 days before the vote, put the CDU narrowly ahead with 29% and the SPD at 28% — a razor‑thin margin after months of the CDU’s lead steadily narrowing.
The FDP faces the prospect of losing the viticulture ministry: polls place them below the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation. The Greens are polling around 8% and likely to see modest losses. For the first time the Left party is polling at about 5%, giving it a real chance to enter the state parliament. The far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be a big winner, polling at roughly 19% — more than double its 2021 share. Because other parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD, the next government is likely to be a grand coalition of SPD and CDU; the main question is which party will lead it.
The top candidates are incumbent Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) and challenger Gordon Schnieder (CDU). Both are in their early 50s, fathers of three, down‑to‑earth in style and unusually tall (Schnieder about 1.94 m, Schweitzer about 2.06 m). Their campaign was marked more by politeness than attack. Personality appears decisive: in a hypothetical head‑to‑head, Schweitzer leads 41% to Schnieder’s 23%, a gap that could influence overall results.
This election is the second of five state votes in Germany’s 2026 “super election year” and is watched in Berlin as a barometer for national parties. The first contest, in Baden‑Württemberg, produced the SPD’s worst post‑war result at 5.5%, and post‑vote surveys suggested voters are disappointed with the federal government’s performance. Both CDU and SPD urgently need a positive outcome in Rhineland‑Palatinate; their federal coalition has governed together for 10 months and already seen approval ratings fall.
If the SPD loses the state premier’s office after 35 years, internal unrest and calls for a shift left could intensify, threatening the federal coalition with the CDU. If the CDU loses, it would mirror the humiliation in Baden‑Württemberg and spark debate over the party’s direction under leader Friedrich Merz. Merz has promised more conservative policies and greater assertiveness toward the SPD, but a further leftward shift by the SPD would make cooperation more fraught and raise questions about the coalition’s durability.
The race remains tight: infratest‑dimap found 12% of eligible voters saying their preference could still change before election day.
This article was originally written in German.
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