The first of five regional elections in 2026, held in wealthy Baden-Württemberg, produced an unexpected victory for the Greens. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right CDU had hoped to reclaim the state from the Greens but failed to do so.
A poll on election day found over 70% of Baden-Württemberg voters dissatisfied with federal government policies. Still, Merz rejected any direct link between his party’s defeat and the federal government’s approach, calling the result “primarily a personal victory for Cem Özdemir.” Özdemir, 60, narrowly won and is set to become state premier while continuing a coalition with the conservatives. He told DW on election night that the Greens will be part of the new government alongside the CDU.
During the campaign Özdemir distanced himself from leftist Green positions and avoided advocating strict climate measures such as phasing out gasoline cars—sensitive in a state dominated by the crisis-hit automotive industry, home to firms like Porsche and Mercedes. Özdemir will be the first state premier in the Federal Republic whose parents were not born in Germany; they emigrated from Turkey in the 1960s.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), coalition partner in Berlin, suffered a dramatic defeat, earning just 5.5% of the vote. SPD leaders Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas, both federal ministers, struggled to explain the poor performance. Bas acknowledged that the party had failed to convince working-class voters and said the SPD would focus on protecting industrial jobs and lowering energy prices.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its share from five years earlier to 18.8%, with co-leader Tino Chrupalla declaring the party “mainstream” in Baden-Württemberg. Both the CDU and Greens, however, have ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
Both the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Left party failed to pass the 5% threshold for the state parliament. The FDP had hoped to reenter as it seeks a comeback after dropping out of the federal Bundestag in the 2025 general election that followed the collapse of the Greens–SPD–FDP coalition.
Baden-Württemberg, with just over 11 million people, is one of Germany’s strongest economic states and a hub of the automotive industry, alongside numerous family-owned businesses. It borders France and Switzerland.
All parties now turn to the next regional vote in two weeks’ time in Rhineland-Palatinate, where the SPD currently governs and polls show a tight race with the CDU.
This article was originally written in German.