In Tshehaye displacement camp, a former public school in Shire, classrooms have been converted into living spaces. Families sleep among cracked concrete walls and blackboards; tents fill the dusty schoolyard.
A mother of three, who asked not to be named, sits outside one shelter. She was first forced from her home when fighting erupted between Ethiopia’s federal forces and Tigrayan fighters in 2020. After the Pretoria Agreement ended the main fighting in 2022, she attempted to return to her village in western Tigray, part of the region still occupied by forces from neighbouring Amhara. Her land had been taken, and life there was impossible. Eight months ago she fled again to Shire.
Her husband, she says, was arrested “because he is Tigrayan.” After his release the family followed him north. “If it were possible, I would like to live in peace and return home and cultivate my land as in the past,” she says. “It is very difficult to live like this with my children.”
Thousands in Tshehaye share that fear. Across Tigray, around 800,000 people remain displaced and cannot return to their land, especially in western areas. Unresolved displacement has become a major point of friction between the region and the federal government.
Camp life is harsh: water is scarce, food distributions are irregular, medicines are limited, and humanitarian conditions worsened after last year’s aid cuts. Families subsist on small rations and informal networks. “Shelters are built every month, with each new arrival of displaced people,” says Hagos Gebremichael, the camp coordinator and a former resident of western Tigray. New families continue to arrive from western Tigray and from Sudan, where many sought refuge during the war. “Before, I lived a normal life there. Now I live here without support, without work, without anything. If no one takes me back home, I will not choose to die here. I would rather try to return, even if it costs me my life.”
Clashes flared again in late January in Tselemti between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Fighting was also reported near the southern border with Afar, involving the TDF and former TDF members amid divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Drone strikes during these confrontations recalled tactics used in the 2020–2022 war. Security analysts warn that localized clashes could spread if political tensions rise further.
In mid-February the African Union Commission chair called for immediate action to avert an imminent war. Ethiopia’s foreign minister publicly urged Eritrea to withdraw troops from contested areas and warned of possible action. During the 2020–2022 war, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal army against Tigrayan forces; accusations of interference and changing regional alignments have deepened mistrust. Videos circulating online show troop movements near border zones. Tigrayan officials deny any formal alliance with Eritrea but say they would defend themselves if the peace deal collapses, potentially redrawing battle lines.
Any renewed confrontation involving Ethiopia and Eritrea would likely be fought on Tigrayan soil. The recent tensions have already altered movement and daily life: flights to Tigray were suspended for five days in late January after federal operations that included drone strikes, prompting many residents to rush to leave. “People were shocked by the recent tensions,” says a bus company manager in Shire, who requested anonymity. Buses to Addis Ababa filled quickly as people sought to avoid being trapped again.
In Mekelle, the regional capital, anxiety is quieter but pervasive. Long lines form outside banks; cash withdrawals are limited to small amounts. Drivers buy fuel on the black market as shortages and rising prices bite. Some goods have vanished from shelves while others have become unaffordable amid persistent inflation. The city’s water system works intermittently. Seife, a former tour guide now doing irregular work, says the lack of cash makes life extremely difficult. “Businesses demand cash because they cannot rely on bank transfers anymore. Everything depends on cash.” After the recent clashes, he says fear returned quickly: “The fragile peace we have could collapse. The war could start again.”
The 2020–2022 war, according to widely cited estimates, killed around 600,000 people and saw grave human rights violations and alleged war crimes. The Pretoria Agreement formally ended large-scale hostilities, but key provisions remain unimplemented: disarmament and reintegration are incomplete, and Eritrean troops still occupy positions in the north.
National elections are scheduled for June 1, but the TPLF remains excluded. Ethiopia’s House of Federation recently removed five districts from Tigray’s administrative oversight for the upcoming vote, a decision local officials say will inflame tensions further. Against this backdrop, deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have heightened fears that Tigray could again become the epicenter of renewed conflict.
Near the Mekelle Martyrs Monument & Museum — a symbol of Tigray’s past political prominence — Berhane, the municipal gardener, tends hedges and waters flowers beneath an afternoon sun. The monument stands largely empty. “We are waiting to see if there will be another war,” he says. “I was born here. I want to build my life here. But I fear that something worse could happen.”
