European powers have warned Israel against launching a ground offensive in Lebanon as the Israeli military said it was carrying out “limited and targeted ground operations” in the south against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia and political movement.
“A significant Israeli ground offensive would have devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict,” said a joint statement by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Canada, adding that such an outcome “must be averted.”
There are fears in Lebanon that incursions described by the Israeli military as aimed at “key Hezbollah strongholds” could expand into a broader invasion of the south, a region where Hezbollah holds sway.
Lebanon’s parliament on Monday extended its term by two years. Elections originally scheduled for May were postponed because lawmakers said it was unrealistic to hold a nationwide vote amid war and large-scale displacement.
Two weeks earlier, after the US and Israel began bombing Iran, Hezbollah fired at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite Lebanon’s government urging the militia not to drag the country into the US–Israeli conflict with Iran.
European leaders have long urged Hezbollah to disarm. They now fear a major humanitarian crisis within Lebanon and secondary impacts on Europe if Israel mounts a full-scale invasion. Lebanon is already grappling with a severe economic collapse.
So what worries European leaders, and what tools can they use to try to halt the fighting?
“We’ve seen [a cycle of statements] from Europeans, asking, begging the Israelis not to escalate, not to widen their offensive, whether it’s Lebanon, Gaza or elsewhere. But it never really amounts to much more than a polite request,” Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.
“The migration issue”
Europe’s main concern is that a widening Middle East war would create instability and chaos — notably mass displacement from Lebanon and increased migration toward Europe.
“There’s a real concern that actually this is precisely the kind of situation that pushes more people from the Middle East to look to flee the region and head to Europe,” Barnes-Dacey said.
The risk of sectarian violence inside Lebanon has also risen. Many displaced people from areas under attack are Shiites seeking refuge in Sunni- and Christian-majority zones. Because Hezbollah is a Shiite movement, displaced Shiites can be viewed as potential supporters and therefore make host communities vulnerable to further Israeli strikes.
“The Israeli army is talking of going up and even beyond potentially the Litani River and depopulating that area,” Barnes-Dacey said, referring to southern Lebanon. “There’s a risk that this fuels internal conflict within Lebanon, pitting different communities against each other. Obviously, Syria sits alongside Lebanon with its own vulnerability. So all of these combined elements are very worrying for Europe. And obviously Europe has its eye on the migration issue.”
There is also danger for peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. Observers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have occasionally come under fire amid clashes between Israel and Hezbollah and are operating in zones where Israel has ordered civilians to leave.
“It is unacceptable that peacekeepers performing Security Council-mandated tasks are targeted,” UNIFIL said in a statement on March 6, two days after urging both Israel and Hezbollah to show restraint.
Europe’s economic leverage over Israel
Experts say Europe’s most tangible leverage lies in economic ties. The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner, and Brussels could consider measures such as partially suspending the EU–Israel Association Agreement or reviving talks on trade restrictions that were discussed in 2025 as a warning over Israel’s Gaza campaign.
“Obviously, the key card that Europeans have been unwilling to play over the course of the last two years when it comes to Israel is the economic card. The EU is Israel’s largest economic trading partner. And yet Europe has never been willing to put that on the table,” Barnes-Dacey said.
“If the Europeans wanted to put serious pressure on Israel to not widen this offensive, they would have to think about putting material pressure on Israel,” he added. “That is taking political and economic steps to make the country feel the squeeze and a sense of international isolation for moving forward with this kind of offensive.”
What Europe is doing to help Lebanon
An EU spokesperson highlighted the scale of the humanitarian emergency in Lebanon, saying as many as 900,000 people had been displaced. Last week, the EU pledged relief during a video call with Middle Eastern leaders after families fled Hezbollah-dominated areas including Dahiyeh, a Beirut suburb.
The EU said the first shipment of supplies had already been flown to Beirut from Copenhagen, delivering items such as medical kits, shelter materials and recreation kits for children. The bloc has allocated a €100 million ($115 million) aid package to respond to displacement and is coordinating with partners on the ground, including UNICEF.
“The people of Lebanon can count on the European Union,” said Hadja Lahbib, the European commissioner for equality, preparedness and crisis management.
However, EU efforts are focused on humanitarian relief. France, Germany, Italy and the UK expressed deep concern over the escalation and urged “meaningful engagement by Israeli and Lebanese representatives to negotiate a sustainable political solution,” but did not set out a concrete plan for how such talks might take place.
Edited by: Carla Bleiker
