European capitals have condemned Iran and urged respect for international law, but they have not produced a unified response as the US-Israel–Iran crisis unfolds. Leaders across the European Union and the United Kingdom appear divided and largely defensive, pursuing measures to protect territory and partners rather than preparing for direct military involvement.
After Iran launched drones at Cyprus, an EU territory, and struck Gulf assets, questions intensified about whether Europe can remain neutral. Analysts say most EU states are focused on deterrence and defence rather than joining combat operations alongside the US or Israel.
Cornelius Adebahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations says EU members and the UK agree on defensive steps if a European state is attacked and on supporting Gulf partners, but they differ over US war aims and how far to back US action. He argues there will be no single EU position on the war and that no member state intends to enter the fighting directly.
Pressure from Washington has grown. The White House has urged European allies to back the US and Israel, while President Donald Trump criticized delays in European support and publicly rebuked UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer after Starmer questioned large-scale military strikes and the goal of regime change. Still, Britain has permitted US forces to use two UK bases.
Germany drew praise in Washington after Chancellor Friedrich Merz authorized US access to Ramstein Air Base. France has allowed a temporary presence of US aircraft at some French bases but only after securing guarantees they would not be used to strike Iran and would stay focused on regional defence. Italy says it has received no formal US request to use its bases and may instead supply air-defence systems to Gulf partners. Analysts describe limited base access across Europe as a compromise under US pressure.
Iran’s strike on a Royal Air Force base in Cyprus alarmed several EU members and prompted Italy, Greece, the Netherlands and France to send naval vessels to the island. Experts warn Iran appears willing to expand its campaign beyond the Gulf and into European waters and territory. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute suggests Tehran may believe Europe must ‘pay a cost’ for the conflict to end. NATO and European leaders have also warned of threats on European soil, including alleged plots and assassination attempts.
European concerns go beyond security. Officials fear higher energy prices if Gulf supplies are disrupted, possible migration flows through Turkey, and diversion of military equipment needed for other conflicts, notably Ukraine. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said there is not yet an immediate migration surge but stressed that Europe must prepare for prolonged instability. She also warned that reduced Gulf oil supplies could push buyers toward Russian crude, enriching Moscow and weakening Western positions in Ukraine.
Many analysts caution that direct European military engagement with Iran would bring serious risks. Antonio Giustozzi of RUSI noted British and French reluctance to enter a wider war. Adebahr highlighted that national interests and domestic politics are pulling member states in different directions; Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has firmly opposed intervention and denied US requests to use Spanish bases, drawing threats of trade repercussions from President Trump.
Germany has taken a more conciliatory route aimed at preserving transatlantic ties. Overall, European governments appear preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the domestic consequences of any deeper entanglement in the Middle East. The prevailing view in many capitals is that this is not Europe’s war to fight directly, though they are taking steps to defend their territories and support partners while watching developments closely.
Edited by Rob Mudge