“We are the winners of the evening,” said Tino Chrupalla, co-chairman of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), in virtually every interview he gave on election night. Markus Frohnmaier, the AfD’s top candidate in Baden-Württemberg, struck the same note: “I am very, very satisfied!”
With 18.8% of the vote, the AfD achieved its best election result to date in a western German state. That success is striking because the party often polls higher in eastern Germany; Baden-Württemberg is one of Germany’s wealthiest and economically strongest states, home to multinationals such as Mercedes‑Benz, Porsche, SAP and Bosch, and a robust middle class.
Classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence service as a suspected right‑wing extremist organization, the AfD capitalized on anti‑immigrant sentiment and promises of mass deportations. In the car‑making state, it accused other parties of “treason” over policies promoting alternative drivetrains, positioning itself as a defender of the gasoline engine and expressing skepticism about man‑made climate change.
Analyses by infratest‑dimap showed the AfD performed particularly well among workers, receiving 37% of their vote. Structural economic change and fears over job losses appear to have driven working‑class voters toward the party. Communications scientist Frank Brettschneider noted AfD supporters tend to view the present more pessimistically than other voters, often agreeing with the sentiment that “everything used to be better.”
The AfD also benefited from high voter turnout, picking up around 200,000 additional votes from people who might otherwise not have voted, according to pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
But top AfD figures did not appear wholly satisfied. The party failed to reach its stated goal of 25%, and internal problems and scandals have left leadership under strain. Party leader Alice Weidel, who previously energized campaigns with sharp rhetoric, faces growing criticism and appears to be struggling amid several controversies.
Accusations of nepotism have stirred unrest: revelations that AfD parliamentarians employed friends and relatives in party offices were legally permissible but poorly received by the grassroots, undermining the party’s outsider image. Weidel has largely refrained from direct criticism on the issue and has been unusually defensive.
The AfD’s broader political project—seeking an ideological shift toward a Germany without migrants and Islam, aiming for a more homogeneous society—creates tensions between radical aims and the temptations of established political power. Some party insiders and media sympathetic to the far right criticized what they called a turn toward “apparatchiks” after the election.
Despite its gains, the AfD’s result in Baden‑Württemberg also contradicted a key campaign message: the claim that voters rejected Green Party policies. The Greens remained the strongest party and will continue to hold the state premier’s office; the AfD will remain in opposition.
This article was originally written in German.
