There is no shortage of gloomy assessments of the global situation. “In the era of great powers, our freedom is no longer a given. It is under threat,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at the Munich Security Conference in February, explicitly naming China.
Merz warned that China aims to shape global affairs, building influence with strategic patience and potentially matching the US in military capability in the foreseeable future. He accused Beijing of exploiting dependencies and reinterpreting the international order on its own terms. At the same time, he suggested the United States can no longer be taken for granted as a reliable partner.
In Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi offered the multilateralism, rules-based order and free trade that the German government feels are lacking in Washington. Merz views aspects of that offer as an opportunity. He will visit China on February 24 at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang — his first trip there since becoming chancellor in May 2025 — and said he would discuss “strategic partnerships.”
But how promising is China’s offer? “Not everything China wants is automatically in Germany’s interests. That will have to be discussed and negotiated,” said Eberhard Sandschneider, a China expert at the Free University of Berlin.
The old business model no longer works. A large business delegation accompanies Merz. China overtook the US as Germany’s top trading partner, with trade volume exceeding €250 billion in 2025. Yet the relationship has shifted: Germany’s trade deficit with China reached a record estimated at around €90 billion in 2025, up by about €30 billion from 2024. Merz has spoken of a “growth gap” and stressed that Germany must become more competitive.
The German automotive sector, long successful in China, has been hit by the transition to electric vehicles. Many German EVs are priced out of the Chinese market, while China exports much cheaper electric cars to Europe. “We have been resting on our laurels for too long,” Sandschneider said, noting that Germany’s pride in crafting premium cars is challenged by Chinese makers who now build “mobile phones on wheels.” China has become a technological leader in key areas, and catching up will be difficult.
Dependence on China for critical raw materials is another concern. Beijing holds a near-monopoly on some rare earths essential for electric vehicles and other technologies. China’s export restrictions on rare earths in 2025 even caused temporary production stoppages at German carmakers. Experts also warn of security risks from Chinese access to data via communications networks. US officials have urged European allies to align with Washington on these risks. Sandschneider warned that a bipolar world could force Germany into a difficult choice between the US and China.
Merz plans to press President Xi Jinping to stop supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Sandschneider doubts this will succeed, arguing Beijing has a geostrategic interest in not losing Russia. The chancellor’s visit is overdue in two ways: it comes long after he took office and later than similar Western visits. Other leaders — including France’s Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Keir Starmer and Canada’s Mark Carney — have visited China recently seeking greater economic latitude that the US had constrained.
Merz had wanted to send a German delegation to China in October, but diplomatic tensions intervened. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul accused China of aggression in the Pacific and canceled his planned China visit when it became clear he would meet only his counterpart, Wang Yi — a move that was poorly received in Beijing.
Merz has also been outspoken. He recently criticized China for aggressively expanding bases in the South China Sea, encircling Taiwan and declaring it might use force to achieve reunification. That remark came days before his departure; it may affect the tone of his talks in Beijing.
This article was originally published in German.