In early February German media warned that a severe cold snap was straining gas reserves, with outlets reporting storage levels could only last weeks if conditions worsened. The concern stems from the 2022 decision to stop buying Russian oil and gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting questions about whether Germany could meet its needs without Russian supplies. By 2023 it became clear the country could cope.
Replacement supplies have come from the United States, Norway and other sources, and import routes shifted toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea. LNG terminals were planned, approved and put into operation quickly, and pipeline connections with neighbors were strengthened.
Government and industry officials say the gas supply is secure. The economics ministry points to a well-developed LNG infrastructure across Germany and Europe and to Norway as the main pipeline supplier. The Federal Network Agency also reports no current threat to supply and stresses that storage fill-levels are only one indicator; a sizable share of gas arrives via pipelines and LNG shipments from neighboring states. Analysts note that the system would be more vulnerable to disruptive events—such as terrorist attacks or failure of major import pipelines—than to seasonal cold itself.
Industry experts broadly judge current reserves sufficient under normal conditions. Short extreme cold spells of one to two weeks, they say, can be covered by existing stocks, pipelines and LNG imports. The legally mandated storage fill requirements have been met, and the gas industry asserts it can respond quickly to increased demand thanks to new infrastructure.
Storage facilities operate on predictable seasonal cycles: imports are relatively steady year-round, while consumption falls in summer and peaks in winter. Surplus summer imports are partly exported but mainly stored to be withdrawn in winter. However, market pricing complicates storage economics. Last summer’s exceptionally high wholesale prices created a negative summer/winter spread—gas cost more to buy in summer than it could be sold for in winter—reducing the financial incentive to fill storage. The government maintains that filling should occur through market mechanisms, with state intervention only to materially increase security of supply without relieving market participants of responsibility.
Looking ahead to next year, the system is considered more stable than it was three to four years ago, but challenges remain. Low storage levels at the end of winter raise the question of how to refill tanks for the following season. Attractive wholesale price differentials between summer and winter will be needed to make refilling economically viable. Experts call for more flexibility in the system—additional storage capacity, active demand-side management, and broader moves to electrify heat and expand alternative energy sources—to reduce dependence on gas and strengthen overall energy security.
This piece was originally published in German.