Meera Kurian, 46, had worked in Dubai for so long she stopped counting the years. Earlier this month the hotel where she was employed let her go after occupancy fell sharply following the outbreak of war involving Iran. She has returned to her hometown of Kochi in southern India.
Kurian is not angry — and that resignation reflects the mood of many returning Indian workers. ‘Everyone is in the same situation,’ she said. ‘You cannot be angry at a war.’
The regional conflict has disrupted Gulf economies: airspace closures, shipping delays and stalled construction and energy projects have dented the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Travel has slowed, hotels are emptier, airlines have cut flights and even some supermarket shelves are thinning. ‘When people stop coming, it spreads … retail, logistics, everything. Dubai runs on visitors. Take that away and the whole machine slows down,’ Kurian said.
As of early this year, about 9 million Indian nationals worked in Gulf states, making them the region’s largest expatriate group. They fill roles across construction, hospitality, logistics, retail and services and send more than $50 billion a year in remittances back to India.
Between the outbreak of the Iran-related conflict in late February and mid-April, around 984,000 Indian nationals returned to India by air, the Ministry of External Affairs reported — a tally that includes students and other vulnerable people. Senior ministry official Aseem Mahajan said the government has focused on keeping people safe, operating control rooms and issuing regular advisories on local rules, flight status and travel options.
Despite the scale of flights home, most Indian workers in the Gulf have so far chosen to stay, reluctant to abandon jobs and lives they built over years. The decision is wrenching: returning can mean giving up accumulated savings and career progress, while staying risks unemployment or unpaid leave if the regional downturn deepens. If the war continues, many workers could face layoffs and high relocation costs amid uncertain prospects back home.
Back in Kerala, Kurian says shipping costs from Dubai to Kochi have risen by about 30 percent, and the return does not yet feel settled. ‘Nobody is saying it out loud, but everyone is waiting,’ she said.
Kerala is India’s largest remittance recipient, with roughly 2.2 million residents working abroad and nearly 90 percent of them in the Gulf. Former diplomat Venu Rajamony warned that falling remittances are already hitting domestic consumption and sales for companies in communities heavily dependent on Gulf migrants. ‘All these trends will accelerate the longer the war extends. The trust others had in the Gulf countries as a safe haven has been seriously eroded,’ he said.
The returning cohort includes not only blue-collar laborers but technicians, supervisors and small business owners. Ramesh Kumar Reddy, 38, had 11 years’ experience as an instrumentation technician at a petrochemical plant near Muscat, Oman. He was placed on unpaid leave in late March with two weeks’ notice and has since returned to Visakhapatnam. His Gulf certifications in pressure systems and safety compliance hold little weight locally; the nearest refinery is not hiring and he has applied to work with a private security firm. ‘In Oman, I was a specialist till the war disrupted everything. Here, nobody knows what to do with me. I cannot start all over again,’ Reddy said.
Analysts warn the flows could create wider economic stress for India. Former ambassador to Oman Anil Wadhwa said a prolonged Iran-linked conflict would strain Gulf economies and India’s diaspora, and could weaken the Gulf’s role as an employment ‘safety valve’ for India as the region’s post-war reconstruction reshapes opportunities.
Lekha Chakraborty, an economist at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, cautioned that a ‘labor shock’ could unfold within months: rising household debt, underemployment and pressures on state finances if job losses among migrant workers mount and remittance flows fall.
For much of India the bigger economic effects remain a risk on the horizon, but for Kurian and others the impact is already immediate. ‘We had a life there. Now we wait to see what is left of it,’ she said.