The escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks have abruptly disrupted a tourism upswing across the Arabian Peninsula. After years of rapid expansion and record visitor numbers, the region’s travel industry now faces a sudden downturn as airspace closures, shipping interruptions and safety concerns strand hundreds of thousands of international travelers.
Widespread airspace restrictions over large swaths of the Gulf have left holidaymakers and business travelers unable to fly home, and cruise companies operating in the Persian Gulf have seen itineraries hit by disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tour operators and national authorities are focused on evacuating guests, with some flights having departed in recent days but many travelers still awaiting safe passage.
Hans Hopfinger, a cultural geography professor who has tracked tourism development in the Middle East and North Africa for decades, said the crisis is a major shock for countries that have spent years marketing themselves as stable destinations. Gulf states, he notes, have emphasized safety to distinguish themselves from other regional hotspots and have not experienced the kinds of frequent terrorist attacks seen elsewhere in the Arab world.
Rapid growth until now
Data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization show the Middle East and North Africa among the fastest-growing tourism regions globally. In 2025 nearly 100 million international visitors arrived in destinations such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — a 39% increase from 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. No other region matched that growth rate, according to the UNWTO.
The scale of the Gulf’s travel industry is visible at hubs like Dubai International Airport, which handled more than 95 million international passengers in 2025 — its busiest year yet — and helped Dubai record almost 20 million visitors for the third consecutive year. Much of this success reflects long-term planning to diversify economies beyond oil and gas and to develop tourism as a strategic sector.
Dubai’s approach, Hopfinger says, combined a comprehensive master plan with investments in shopping, sports events, cultural attractions and luxury hospitality. Other Gulf states have pursued similar strategies in recent years.
Saudi Arabia’s tourism push
Saudi Arabia, which only began offering tourist e-visas in 2019, is also investing heavily in tourism under its Vision 2030 economic reform program. Historically reliant on oil revenues, the kingdom now aims to attract tens of millions of international visitors, with a 2030 target that includes 70 million tourists annually. Projects such as the Red Sea development and the promotion of heritage sites — including newly designated UNESCO locations — are central to that effort.
Religious travel remains a constant: Mecca and Medina continue to draw millions of pilgrims each year, a stable source of visitors that complements wider tourism ambitions. Large-scale events across the region — from Formula 1 races to the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar and global expos in the UAE — have also raised the Gulf’s international profile.
Immediate impact and outlook
Industry leaders now expect a wave of cancellations and rebookings as travel warnings spread. Many travelers are shifting plans toward more established Mediterranean destinations, at least in the short term. The situation recalls the Middle East’s historical pattern of periodic instability; for decades, regional conflicts have influenced travel decisions and demand.
Martin Lohmann of the Research Association for Vacation and Travel, who studies vacation behavior, says recovery timelines will hinge on several practical factors. If security risks subside quickly, infrastructure remains intact and key attractions are unharmed, some destinations — particularly in the United Arab Emirates — could see demand rebound within weeks. But if instability persists, recovery will be slower and reputational damage may take longer to repair.
For now, the urgent priorities are traveler safety and repatriation. Tour operators, airlines and governments are coordinating evacuations and rerouting flights where possible, but volatile conditions mean it may take several more days to get everyone home.
The conflict has undercut years of investment and marketing just as the region was enjoying its strongest post-pandemic performance. How rapidly tourism can bounce back will depend on the pace at which security concerns are resolved and the ability of affected countries to reassure international travelers that the Gulf remains a safe and welcoming destination.
This article was originally written in German.